During the reporting period, the harvest of the Aus rice crop was completed in July. The planting of the main rice crop (Aman) had started in June already and was completed in July.  For the whole reporting period, rainfall was below average (-32%) and TEMP was above average (+0.5℃). Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were above the 15-year average (+12% and +1%, respectively). The national NDVI development graph showed that overall crop conditions were slightly below the 5-year average in July and August except well above the 5 year maximum at the end of July and returned to the 5-year average in September and October. But excessive rainfall at the end of September slightly affected the NDVI values, presumeably due to flooding. The spatial NDVI pattern showed that over 80% of the cultivated area was close to average, but 18.9% had a big drop in early August and 15.1% in September due to cloud cover in the satellite images. The rest (18.7%) of the area was below average during the whole period, mainly distributed in the Sylhet basin. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.90, with most areas showing values higher than 0.8 and CALF was close to the 5YA (93%). The Cropping intensity was 161% (-7%) and Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.14. Overall, the crop conditions in most parts of Bangladesh were below but close to average.

Regional analysis

Bangladesh can be divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Coastal region(23), the Gangetic Plain(24), the Hills(25), and the Sylhet basin(26).

In the Coastal region, RAIN was below average (-19%) while both TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.4°C and +8%). The potential biomass was slightly above average (+2%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were above the 5-year average in July and early August, but they were below average at the end of September and in October. Below average rainfall in the first two month affected the growth of Aman rice. Cropping intensity (CI 138%) was lower than the 5YA by 11%. CALF was 93% and VCIx was 0.90, Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.13. Overall, crop conditions were below but close to average for this zone.

RAIN was greatly below average (-37%) in the Gangetic Plain. Both TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.5°C and +10%, respectively). The BIOMSS was slightly above average (+1%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA except the end of July and returned to the 5-year average in October. During the monitoring period, CALF (97%) was above average (+1%) while CI was below the 5YA (-3%). VCIx was 0.95 and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.17. Crop conditions of this region were close to the average.

The Hills recorded less rainfall (-47%). Warmer temperature (+0.5℃) and more sunshine (+17%) were also recorded. Potential biomass for the Hills was estimated 2% lower than the 15YA average. The crop conditions experienced a deterioration from above average to near average. Insufficient rainfall affected the sowing of Aman rice and Cropping intensity was below the 5YA (-12%). CALF was 98% and VCIx was 0.90, Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.14. Overall, crop conditions were close to the average.

The Sylhet basin also had less rainfall (-27%). Both TEMP and RADPAR were above the 15YA (+0.6℃ and +14%, respectively). Potential biomass for the Hills was estimated 3% higher than the 15YA. CALF and CI were lower than the 5YA by 2% and 8% (86% and 155%, respectively) and VCIx was 0.95 for the area. Crop development based on NDVI was near or slightly below average in this period except at the end of July. Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.08. Based on the above information, near-average prospects for rice in the zones can be expected.

Figure 3.5 Bangladesh’s crop condition, July - October 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

                                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                             (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles

 (g) Temperature profiles

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coastal region

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Gangetic plain

(j)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Hills

(k)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Sylhet basin

Table 3.2 Bangladesh’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2022

Table 3.3 Bangladesh’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2022