This reporting period (July to October) covers the main growing period of wheat. Its harvest is still ongoing and will conclude by December. The harvest of maize in the North-east is also ongoing while the harvest of rice in north and northeast and the second maize in central and southern Brazil had concluded by August. The sowing of the summer crops (maize, soybean, and rice) in Central and Southern Brazil just started in early October.

Brazil has experienced prolonged dry and warmer-than-usual weather for more than two years since mid-2020. CropWatch Agro-climatic Indicators (CWAIs) present below-average conditions with 44% lower rainfall, 0.8°C higher temperature and average radiation compared with the 15YA during this monitoring period. The significantly below-average rainfall and above-average temperature was unfavorable for crops, resulting in a 18% reduction of potential biomass. Dry and warm weather conditions were widespread across almost the whole country except for a few states on the northeast coast. The extreme dry weather was observed in most of the major agricultural producing states in Central Brazil such as Goias, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso Do Sul and Minas Gerais with larger than 50% negative rainfall anomalies. Above-average temperature and radiation were also observed in those five states except for PAR in Mato Grosso (-1%). As affected by the extremely low rainfall, the BIOMSS was in general well below average on the BIOMSS departure map.

According to the 15YA precipitation profile, the current monitoring period covers the end of the dry season and the start of the rainy season. Precipitation profiles indicate that precipitation was in general well below the average of the last 15 years as well as below last year's levels. Moreover, the start of the wet season was delayed not only in comparison to the long-term average, but to last year's conditions as well. The dry weather together with the late start of the wet season affected the sowing, emergence and early development of summer crops. It was estimated that the sowing progress of first season maize and the soybean in Brazil was slower by 5 percentage point and 7 percentage point respectively.

The water stress negatively affected crop development, resulting in below-average NDVI values throughout the monitoring period. Crop conditions varied, especially since August. Both the proportions of above-average and below-average crop condition categories increased gradually. Spatially, crops in the northeast coast and Parana River Basin presented above-average NDVI as they benefited from the normal or above-average rainfall while NDVI in most other regions stayed at or below average according to the NDVI departure clustering maps and profiles. Poor crop conditions were observed in central Brazil where negative NDVI departures from average exceeded 0.1 mainly due to the extreme dry conditions (dark green color in figure f). It is also noteworthy that part of Mato Grosso Do Sul presented continuous improvements in crop condition since July although the region received limited rainfall. This is mainly due to the irrigation systems.

The VCIx map presented similar patterns with high values (> 0.8) in the northeast coast and Parana River Basin while VCIx values was lower (<0.8) in central Brazil, especially the Central Savanna zone. At the national level, VCIx was 0.84 and CALF was 1% below the 5YA. On an annual basis, cropping intensity increased by 3% indicating that the soybean – maize double cropping system was still expanding even under prolonged dry weather conditions.

All in all, crop conditions in Brazil were below average and the establishment of the summer crops was delayed due to the late start of the wet season. The crop production index (CPI) in Brazil is 1.05 reflecting an overall above-average crop prospect. The main reason is wheat production in Parana and Rio Grande Do Sul which was less affected by dry weather. Wheat production is expected to be above average level. Currently, it is still at the sowing and early stages of the summer crops, the outputs for 2022-2023 summer season crops will depend on the future weather conditions.

Regional analysis

Considering the differences in cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. Considering the current agriculture practices, this bulletin focus on Central Savanna (31), the East coast (32), Mato Grosso zone (34), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37). All the AEZs received significantly below-average rainfall (-27% to -89%) and above-average temperature (0.4 ºC to 1.3 ºC) except for southern subtropical rangelands (0.1 ºC lower than 15YA). In Central Savanna, the total precipitation was 18 mm during the last four months, the lowest rainfall among the AEZs. PAR was in general close to average. The overall dry and hot weather for the AEZs resulted in below-average BIOMSS (-3% to -25%).

Brazilian wheat is mostly cultivated in southern subtropical rangelands and the Parana basin. Rainfall in the southern subtropical rangelands zone was the highest among the AEZs at 422 mm, but still 31% below average. Great temporal differences were observed during the last four months with large negative departures from the 15YA in late August to late September, while rainfall was above or close to average in other months. In general, the crops were less affected by the below average rainfall as reflected by the highest VCIx values at 0.95 among the AEZs. CALF in the region was 1% above the 5YA, and the CI was at an average level. Wheat production was still at above-average levels estimated by CropWatch with crop production index (CPI) value at 1.20, the highest among the AEZs in Brazil. For Parana basin, rainfall was 44% below average resulting in a 22% drop in BIOMSS. Thanks to the accessibility of water and irrigation facilities, crop condition was at the 5YA level and above 2021 according to the NDVI-based crop development profile. During the wheat growing period, CALF  was just 1% lower compared with the 5YA and CI was 133%, 3% above the 5YA. Average VCIx value in the region was 0.85. CropWatch puts the wheat production in the region at an above-average level with crop production index (CPI) at 1.07.

Dry and hot weather resulted in continuous below-average crop conditions in Central Savanna, the Coast, and Mato Grosso zones as shown in NDVI-based crop development profiles. CALF in Central Savanna, and Mato Grosso zones was 10% and 7% below average reflecting a delayed sowing on summer crops. CALF in the coast zone was at the average level. VCIx values in Central Savanna, and Mato Grosso zones were also the lowest among the AEZs. Accordingly, CPI values in the two regions were 0.68 and 0.88 respectively, ranking as the lowest two AEZs values in Brazil.

For more indicators and detailed information, it is recommended to visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.11 Brazil’s crop condition, July - October 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure clusters and NDVI departure profiles corresponding to the clusters

(e) Potential biomass departure from 15YA          

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(g) Air temperature profile of Central Savanna

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast zone

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

(L) Proportion of different crop condition categories, July - October 2022

Table 3.14  Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15 years average, July-October 2022

Table 3.15  Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5 years average, July-October 2022