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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhuliang
During this monitoring period, the harvest of summer crops was mostly completed by the end of October, whereas the sowing of canola and winter wheat started in September. Based on the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in Germany were generally below average in most regions.
According to the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, total precipitation at the national level was significantly below average (RAIN -27%), temperature was above average (TEMP +1.3°C) and radiation was also above average (RADPAR +6%). As shown in the time series rainfall profile for Germany, precipitation was overall below average, but significantly above average in mid-September and close to average in late September. Most of the country experienced warmer-than-usual conditions during this reporting period, except for early July and September. Due to the persistent precipitation deficits combined with warmer-than-usual temperatures, the biomass production potential (BIOMSS) was estimated to decrease by 12% nationwide as compared to the fifteen-year average.
As shown in the crop condition development graph and the NDVI profiles at the national level, NDVI values were below the 5YA. These observations are confirmed by the clustered NDVI profiles: all regional NDVI values were below average from July to early September and over half of the regional NDVI values were below average from late September to October. These observations are confirmed by lower VCI values shown in the maximum VCI map. These negative departures were due to below-average rainfall. Overall VCIx for Germany was 0.80. CALF during the reporting period was close to the recent five-year average.
In Germany, crops are mainly rainfed and irrigation rates are relatively low (7.2%). However, the prolonged drought, which had started in the spring, caused a lack of irrigation water. The precipitation stayed below average until September and the drought conditions reduced crop production in all regions of Germany. Crop production index (CPI) was 0.96, less than 1, further suggesting poor crop conditions.
Overall, the agronomic and agroclimatic indicators show below-average conditions for most summer crops in Germany.
Regional analysis
Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, six sub-national agro-ecological regions are adopted for Germany. They include: the Wheat Zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast (56), Mixed Wheat and Sugar beet Zone of the Northwest (57), Central Wheat Zone of Saxony and Thuringia (55), Sparse Crop Area of the East-German Lake and Heathland area (54), Western Sparse Crop Area of the Rhenish Massif (59) and the Bavarian Plateau (58).
Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic Coast are among the major winter wheat zones of Germany. Temperature fluctuated above and below the average value in this region, but total precipitation was below average (RAIN -23%) and radiation was above average (RADPAR +1%). As a result, BIOMSS is expected to decrease by 10% as compared to the average. As shown in the crop condition development graph (NDVI), the values were below average. The area has a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.9), indicating a large cropping area. The cropping intensity increased by 10% as compared to the average.
Wheat and sugar beets are the major crops in the Mixed Wheat and Sugar beet Zone of the Northwest. According to the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, temperatures and radiation were both higher than average (TEMP +1.4°C; RADPAR +9%), but rainfall was significantly below average (RAIN -42%), which led to a decrease in BIOMSS by 23%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average,which is consistent with the crop condition reflected by the crop production index (CPI) of only 0.91. The area has a high CALF (100%), and the cropping intensity decreased by 4% as compared to the average.
Central Wheat Zone of Saxony and Thuringia is another major winter wheat zone. Temperatures and radiation were both higher than average (TEMP +1.2°C; RADPAR +4%), but rainfall was significantly below average (RAIN -29%), which led to a decrease in BIOMSS by 14%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average. Similarly, the crop production index (CPI) was relatively low, with a CPI value of only 0.93. The area has a high CALF (99%) and the VCIx was 0.91 for this region. The cropping intensity decreased by 5% as compared to the average.
In the East-German Lake and Heathland Sparse Crop Area, significantly below-average precipitation was recorded (RAIN -22%). Temperatures and radiation were both higher than average (TEMP +0.9°C; RADPAR +1%). As a result, BIOMSS is expected to decrease by 10% as compared to the average. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average from July to early September, and close to average from later September to October. The area has a high CALF (100%) and the VCIx was 0.93 for this region. The cropping intensity decreased by 5% as compared to the average.
In the Western Sparse Crop Area of the Rhenish Massif, significantly below-average precipitation was also recorded (RAIN -34%) with above-average temperature and solar radiation (TEMP +1.9°C; RADPAR +10%). The biomass potential (BIOMSS) decreased by 15% compared to the 15YA. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average from July to early September, and close to average from late September to October. The crop production index (CPI) was only 0.91. The CALF was 100% for the regions. The VCIx value was 1.01 for the western areas. The cropping intensity decreased by 1% as compared to the average.
A significant reduction in rainfall was recorded for the Bavarian Plateau (RAIN -20%), with above-average temperature (+1.2°C) and above-average radiation (RADPAR +6%). Compared to the fifteen-year average, BIOMSS decreased by 6%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average from July to early September, and close to average from late September to October. The area had a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.95). The cropping intensity decreased by 5% as compared to the average.
Figure 3.13. Germany’s crop condition, July-October 2022
(a) Phenology of major crops in Germany
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-October 2022 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum
(c) Maximum VCI for the July-October 2022 period
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns for Germany up to October 2022 according to local cropping patterns and as compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)
(e) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) of Germany comparing the July-October 2022 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum
(f) Wheat zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic Coast crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (middle) and temperature (right)
(g) Mixed wheat and sugarbeets zone of the north-west crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (middle) and temperature (right)
(h) Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (middle) and temperature (right)
(i) East-German lake and Heathland sparse crop area crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profile (middle) and temperature (right)
(j) Western sparse crop area of the Rhenish massif crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profile (middle) and temperature (right)
(k) Bavarian Plateau crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profile (middle) and temperature (right)
Table 3.17. Germany agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2022
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current | Departure from 15YA (°C) | Current | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current | Departure from 15YA (%) | |
(mm) | (°C) | (MJ/m2) | (gDM/m2) | |||||
Wheat zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast | 261 | -23 | 16.1 | 0.9 | 801 | 1 | 717 | -10 |
Mixed wheat and sugarbeets zone of the north-west | 178 | -42 | 16.2 | 1.4 | 881 | 9 | 587 | -23 |
Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia | 197 | -29 | 15.9 | 1.2 | 896 | 4 | 618 | -14 |
East-German lake and Heathland sparse crop area | 231 | -22 | 16.0 | 0.9 | 864 | 1 | 665 | -10 |
Western sparse crop area of the Rhenish massif | 178 | -34 | 16.1 | 1.9 | 969 | 10 | 606 | -15 |
Bavarian Plateau | 315 | -20 | 15.1 | 1.2 | 991 | 6 | 776 | -6 |
Table 3.18. Germany agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, July-October 2022
Region | Cropped arable land fraction | Maximum VCI | Cropping Intensity | ||
Current | Departure from 5YA (%) | Current | Current | Departure from 5YA (%) | |
(%) | |||||
Wheat zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast | 100 | 0 | 1.01 | 122 | 10 |
Mixed wheat and sugarbeets zone of the north-west | 100 | 0 | 0.98 | 110 | -4 |
Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia | 99 | 0 | 0.91 | 108 | -5 |
East-German lake and Heathland sparse crop area | 100 | 0 | 0.93 | 111 | -5 |
Western sparse crop area of the Rhenish massif | 100 | 0 | 1.01 | 108 | -1 |
Bavarian Plateau | 100 | 0 | 0.95 | 102 | -5 |