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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhuliang
The main food crops in Ethiopia are teff, wheat, barley, and maize. The monitoring period is from July to October and encompasses the main growing and developmental seasons of all Meher crops. In the previous report, it was noted that crop cultivation and development were negatively affected by low precipitation, with the east and north of the country being the most affected by drought. In this report, the overall negative impact of drought has diminished, mainly as a result of higher, yet still below average, precipitation.
Cumulative precipitation had dropped by 19% compared to the 15YA (34% in the previous monitoring period), and both average temperature (-0.1°C) and photosynthetically active radiation (-7%) were slightly lower than the 15YA. Precipitation deficit resulted in a slight 9% decrease in biomass compared to the 15YA. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Ethiopia shows average values after September as a result of the rains. The NDVI departure clustering map shows a good crop development recovery in most of the regions, except for the negative departure pattern in the southern region. The mean maximum VCI for Ethiopia is 0.93. The Maximum VCI graph shows the same pattern as the NDVI departure clustering map. The cropped arable land fraction decreased by 4% compared to 5YA. In conclusion, the crop conditions were generally still below average levels.
Regional analysis
The agroclimatic indicators are similar in Central-northern maize-teff highlands (63) and Western mixed maize zone (74), with cumulative precipitation reaching close to average levels (RAIN -15% and -12% respectively). This resulted in a slight decrease in BIOMSS by 7% and 9%, respectively, compared to the 15YA. NDVI showed decreasing and then increasing trends, reaching close to average levels. Cropped arable land fraction and cropping intensity did not change much. The crop production index was 1.18 and 1.14. Crop yields in these two areas can be assessed as close to average.
However, in the southern regions including Great Rift region (65), South-eastern Mendebo highlands (71), and South-western coffee-enset highlands (73), the negative impact of drought is more long-term, as it also affected the land preparation for the Meher season. Cumulative precipitation (-39%, -25%, and -50%) and photosynthetically active radiation (-7%, -7%, and -8%) were significantly reduced in all three regions, resulting in below-average cumulative biomass (-19%, -15%, and -17%). Cropped arable land fraction remained essentially unchanged while cropping intensity decreased by 9%, 3%, and 7%. In summary, crop yield projections for 2022 are below average in these southern agricultural regions.
Figure 3.15 Ethiopia’s crop condition, July-October 2022
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles (g) Temperature profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central-northern maize-teff highlands (left) Great Rift region (right))
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-eastern Mendebo highlands (left) and South-western coffee-enset highlands (right))
(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western mixed maize zone)
Table 3.21 Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2022
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current (mm) | Departure (%) | Current (°C) | Departure (°C) | Current (MJ/m2) | Departure (%) | Current (gDM/m2) | Departure (%) | |
Central-northern maize-teff highlands | 826 | -15 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 1136 | -8 | 892 | -7 |
Great Rift region | 213 | -39 | 18.3 | 0.1 | 1160 | -7 | 578 | -19 |
South-eastern Mendebo highlands | 365 | -25 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 1046 | -7 | 678 | -15 |
South-western coffee-enset highlands | 486 | -50 | 17.4 | 0.3 | 1003 | -8 | 864 | -17 |
Western mixed maize zone | 1170 | -12 | 19.4 | -0.3 | 1055 | -3 | 1110 | -9 |
Table 3.22. Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2022
Region | Cropped arable land fraction | Cropping intensity | Maximum VCI | ||
Current (%) | Departure (%) | Current (%) | Departure (%) | Current | |
Central-northern maize-teff highlands | 100 | 1 | 107 | -3 | 0.84 |
Great Rift region | 98 | -2 | 108 | -9 | 0.93 |
South-eastern Mendebo highlands | 100 | 0 | 123 | -3 | 0.88 |
South-western coffee-enset highlands | 100 | 0 | 138 | -7 | 0.93 |
Western mixed maize zone | 99 | -1 | 126 | 3 | 0.67 |