During the monitoring period, the dry season maize and secondary rice started being planted in July, and their harvest began in October.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that precipitation and temperature were above the 15YA (RAIN +19%, TEMP +0.1°C) , and radiation was close to average (RADPAR 0%) , which resulted in an estimate of potential biomass production that was above the average (BIOMASS +12%).

According to the national NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below average over the reporting period, however, there were large differences among the regions. NDVI clusters and profiles showed that 35.2% of arable land, located in Semarang, Java, Madura, Nusa Tenggara Barat, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Kupang, and Sulawesi were close to or below average. About 64.8% of arable land, located in Kalimantan, Sumatra, Medan, and Palembang,  was below average in late August and late September, but returned to normal in October.

The area of cropped arable land (CALF 100%) in Indonesia was comparable to the 5YA and the VCIx was 0.94. Cropping intensity (CI -5%) was below the five-years-average. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in this country was 1, while the crop production situation was normal. The national production was anticipated to be above the average, mainly due to the favorable conditions on Java island.

Regional analysis

CropWatch focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91) and West Papua (93), among which the former three are the most relevant for crop cultivation. Java is the main agricultural region in this country. The numbers of the zones correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

Java experienced rainy conditions in this monitoring period. Radiation was below the 15YA (RADPAR -2%) , whereas temperature  and precipitation were above the 15YA (TEMP +0.1°C, RAIN +99%). The increase of rainfall brought an increase in the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +37%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to or slightly above the 5YA. However, due to the influence of clouds in the satellite images, crop conditions were shown as below the five-year average in October, which was an artifact. Cropping intensity (CI 0%) was close to the five-year average. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Java was 1, which indicates normal conditions.  Overall, crop conditions in Java were expected to be above the average. 

In the Kalimantan and Sulawesi region, radiation was below the average (RADPAR -1%) , but precipitation and temperature were above the average (RAIN +26%, TEMP +0.1°C). Adequate rainfall resulted in a potential biomass  production increase (BIOMSS +12%). The NDVI development graphs show that crop conditions were below the 5YA. The sharp drop in October was presumably due to cloud cover in the satellite images or flooding conditions. Cropping intensity was below the five-year average (CI -4%) . The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Kalimantan and Sulawesi was 1, and the crop production situation was normal. Crop conditions in this region were assessed as average.

In Sumatra, radiation was below the average (RADPAR -2%) , and temperature was close to average (TEMP +0°C) , while precipitation was above the average (RAIN +11%). Rainy conditions led to the increase of the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +7%). As shown in NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were below the average. However, due to the influence of clouds, crop conditions were below the 5YA in October. Cropping intensity was below the five-year average (CI -13%). The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Sumatra was 1, the crop production situation was normal. Crop conditions in Sumatra were anticipated to be  average.

Figure 3.20. Indonesia’s crop condition, July – October 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f)Rainfall profiles

(g)Temperature profiles

(h) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Kalimantan-Sulawesi (left) and Sumatra (right))

Table 3.32 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July – October 2022

Table 3.33 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July – October 2022