The harvest of summer crops (irrigated potatoes and rice) was almost over by the end of August, while winter crops (wheat and barley) started to be sown in September. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the crop conditions in Iran during this whole monitoring period were worse than the 5-year average. The accumulative rainfall was down by 13%. The photosynthetically active radiation was 1% above average, whereas the average temperature was 0.8℃ above average. The potential biomass was 1% smaller than the 15-year average. The national maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.47, while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 2% smaller than the average of the past 5-years. The national average Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.92, indicating an unfavorable crop production status.

The NDVI spatial patterns show that from July to October, 24% (marked in blue) and 4% (marked in dark green) of the cropped area had average or slightly above the 5-year average crop conditions throughout the whole monitoring period. The remaining cropped area experienced below-average crop conditions. 3.6% of the cropped area (marked in orange) had the worst below-average crop conditions, mainly located in some parts of Khuzestan and Ardebil. The spatial pattern of maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was in accord with the spatial distribution of the NDVI profiles. Although crop production during this period relied on irrigation, the generally drier-than-usual conditions had a negative impact on production. The prolonged drought will also have a negative impact on the sowing and establishment of rainfed winter wheat, which is mainly grown in the north-west of the country and Fars province.

Regional Analysis 

Based on farming system, climate, and topographic conditions, Iran can be subdivided into three regions, two of which are the main areas for crop production, namely the semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north and the coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area. 

In the semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north, the cumulative precipitation during the monitoring period was 49 mm, 28% below average. Temperature was 0.9℃ above average and photosynthetically active radiation was slightly above the 15YA (+2%). The potential biomass was 6% lower than average. Crop conditions were below the 5-year average. The proportion of cultivated land was 12%, which was 1% smaller than the 5YA. Cropping intensity (CI) was slightly above the 5YA (+3%). The average VCIx for this region was 0.5, indicating an unfavorable crop prospect.

In the coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area, the temperature was 0.7℃ above average. Although the accumulated precipitation was 376% above average, the total was just 61 mm. The photosynthetically active radiation was 2% below average. The potential biomass was 22% higher than the 15-year average. Crop conditions were generally below-average to average compared with 5YA. During the monitoring period, CALF was 10% below the 5YA, while CI was 103% (2% below the 5YA). The value of VCIx was 0.45, also indicating unfavorable crop prospects. 

Figure 3.21. Iran' s crop condition, July‐October 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall profile

(e) Temperature profile

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area)

Table 3.103. Iran's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2022

Table 3.104. Iran’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA and 15YA, July - October 2022