This report covers the growth and harvest of spring wheat In Kazakhstan. Crop production in Kazakhstan is mostly rainfed, as only 3% of the cropland is under irrigation. Compared to the last year's level, the crop conditions were generally favorable.  

Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall, temperature and radiation were above average (RAIN +20%, TEMP +0.2°C, RADPAR +3%). The dekadal precipitation was above average from July to mid-August and exceeded the 15-year maximum in late October. The dekadal temperature fluctuated along the average level and reached the 15-year maximum in early and late September and mid-October. 

The favorable weather conditions resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 10%.

However, the national average maximum VCI index was 0.73 and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was below average by 9%. The cropping intensity was close to average. The spatial VCIx map mostly matched well with the national crop condition development graphs. About 64.9% of croplands, which were distributed in most areas of the central north region, experienced below-average crop conditions from August to October. However, during  that period the harvest of wheat had already started. The crop conditions in 35% of the cropland were above average from August to September in most Aktube state in the northwest region, and some areas of Kostanay, Soltustik kazakstan, Akmola and Shyghys states in the northern region. 

According to the agro-climate and agronomic indicators of CropWatch, the output of spring wheat in this season is estimated to be below 5-year average, but higher than last year's average, despite of a relatively low crop production index (CPI, 0.92). 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111) and the South region (110).

The Northern region is the main spring wheat production area. The accumulated precipitation, temperature and RADPAR were above average (RAIN +24%, TEMP +0.5°C, RADPAR +4%). The rainy and warm sunny weather resulted in an increase of BIOMSS by 14%. According to the NDVI profiles, crop conditions were above or close to last year's level from July to August. The average VCIx for this region was 0.73, and the proportion of cultivated land was 9% lower than the average. The cropping intensity was slightly below average by 1%. The CPI is 0.92. The spring wheat production is estimated to be higher than last year.

In the Eastern plateau and southeastern region, the average rainfall and RADPAR were above average (RAIN +14%, RADPAR +2%), while temperature was below average (TEMP -0.6°C). Crop conditions, as indicated by the NDVI were slightly below average and last year's level during the monitoring period. The average VCIx for this region was 0.76, and CALF was below average by 7%. Output for spring wheat is estimated to be near average.

Although the South region had the lowest precipitation (60 mm) among the three regions, the rainfall was above average by 11%. The temperature was above average (TEMP +0.9°C), while the solar radiation was close to average. The combination of agro-climatic indicators resulted in a slight increase of the BIOMSS index by 4%. The average VCIx for this region was 0.65 and CALF was below average by 21%. The NDVI profiles show slightly below-average conditions during the growth period of spring wheat.

Figure 3.23 Kazakhstan's crop condition, July - October 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c). Maximum VCI

(d). Rainfall profiles 

(e). Temperature profiles

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South zone)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern plateau and southeastern region)

Table 3.38 Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2022

Table 3.39 Kazakhstan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2022