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KenyaMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhuliang


Kenya experiences two rainy seasons. The long rains last from March to late May and the short rains from late October to December. Maize is sown during long and short rains, while wheat is sown only during long rains. This report for the monitoring period from July to October 2022 covers the main growing period and harvesting stage of wheat.

At the national scale, Kenya is in severe drought. The precipitation was 183 mm, 47% below average. According to the national rainfall profiles, the 10-day cumulative rainfall was below the 15YA in almost all decades, apart from mid August and early September. At the sub-national level, all regions received less rainfall, and the Southwest region had the largest negative departure in rainfall compared with the 15YA (RAIN -66%). Due to this condition, the BIOMSS was 19% lower than average and maximum VCI was only 0.68. The NDVI development graph at the national level shows that the NDVI values were below the 5YA throughout this monitoring period.

According to the NDVI clusters and the corresponding NDVI departure profiles, the western and eastern parts of the Highland agriculture zone accounting for 57.7% of national cropland (areas in light green color) had NDVI values that were slightly below the 5YA, while other areas showed significant deviations in crop growth. However, this was in agreement with the maximum VCI graph which shows VCIx higher than 0.8 in the western regions, but VCIx values were much lower in the eastern Highland agriculture zoneIn general, all crops in Kenya were affected by the drought, although to a slightly lesser extent in western Kenya.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZs) can be distinguished for Kenya: the Eastern coastal region (113), the Highland agriculture zone (114) and Northern region (115) and the Southwest region (116).

The Eastern coastal region had the minimum negative deviation in rainfall (-29%), 0.1°C below average temperature and unchanged RADPAR. The shortage of rainfall resulted in a significant drop of NDVI compared with the 5YA and BIOMSS was 7% below average. The maximum VCI was 0.67, which was the minimum among the AEZs. The Cropping Intensity was 163%. In general, the crop condition was unfavorable in the coastal area with poor prospect for livestock and crop production.

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 195 mm of rain, which was below the 15YA by 46%. The low precipitation resulted in significant reductions in biomass (-19%).  Although the maximum VCI value recorded was 0.89, which was the maximum in the four AEZs. The CALF was reduced to 63% (-23%). The Cropping Intensity was 148% and crop production index was 0.90. The NDVI was slightly below the 5YA, especially in late July. This means that the growth of long rain crops wheat and maize was affected. Overall, crop growth has been severely affected by drought conditions in the upland agricultural areas where rainfall was below average.

In Northern rangelands region, the precipitation was significantly below average at 133 mm, decreasing by 49%. Temperature  was above the 15YA (+0.3°C), whereas RADPAR was below average (-3%), BIOMSS was below average (-18%). The NDVI development graph shows that the NDVI values were below average, especially in October. Furthermore, the CALF was reduced to 38% (-41%) . The Cropping Intensity was 142%. All in all, the situation of crop growth in this area was unfavorable.

The Southwest region includes the districts Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu, which has the largest negative departure in RAIN (-66%). The following indicator values were observed: TEMP 19.7°C (+0.6°C); RADPAR (-6%) and BIOMSS (-37%) . And the NDVI curve was close to the 5YA with a VCIx value of 0.85. The Cropping Intensity was 141%, a drop by 4%  from the 5YA, which is the lowest in the four AEZs. This indicates poor crop growth in this region.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, July-October 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                       (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall                                                                                     (g) Time series temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.40 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,July -October 2022

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current (mm)

Departure (%)

Current (°C)

Departure (°C)

Current (MJ/m2)

Departure (%)

Current (gDM/m2)

Departure (%)

Coast

168

-29

24.3

-0.1

1218

0

785

-7

Highland agriculture zone

195

-46

18.6

0.2

1125

-1

564

-19

nothern rangelands

133

-49

23.0

0.3

1211

-3

607

-18

South-west

180

-66

19.7

0.6

1151

-6

622

-37

Table 3.41 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July - October 2022

Region

Cropped arable land fraction

Maximum VCI

Cropping Intensity CI

Current (%)

Departure (%)

Current

Current (%)

Departure (%)

Coast

78

-16

0.71

163

11

Highland agriculture zone

63

-23

0.64

148

11

northern rangelands

38

-41

0.48

142

-1

South-west

100

0

0.82

141

-4