The reporting period (July - October) covers the last part of irrigated maize season only. Maize was harvested in July. Otherwise, no cereal crops are grown during this monitoring period. The sowing of winter wheat will start in November. The cumulative rainfall was lower than the 15-year average (15YA) by 26%. The rainfall profile shows that the rainfall did not exceed 20 mm and it rained mainly from mid-August to mid-October. The average temperature was higher than the 15YA by 1.0°C. The temperature profile shows that the temperature fluctuated around the average. Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were lower than the 15YA, by 4.7% and 4%, respectively. The nationwide NDVI profile was below the 5-year average (5YA) during the reporting period. The NDVI spatial pattern shows that only 11.6% of the cultivated area was above the 5YA while the rest was below. The national VCIx value was at 0.43. CALF was lower than the 5YA by 40%. The nationwide crop production index (CPI) was at 0.60, implying a below-normal crop production situation. In general, the crop conditions were unfavorable and low soil moisture content will hamper land preparation for the upcoming wheat planting period.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts three agro‐ecological zones (AEZs) relevant to crop production in Morocco: the Sub-humid northern highlands, the Warm semi-arid zone, and the Warm sub-humid zone. For the three zones in their respective order, rainfall was below the 15YA by 17%, 28% and 20% while the temperature was higher than the 15YA by 0.7°C, 1.0°C and 0.8°C. Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were below the 15YA, by 6%, 4% and 5% for RADPAR, and 3%, 5% and 3% for BIOMSS, for the three zones respectively. The NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions were below the average in the three zones following the nationwide NDVI profile. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was below the 5YA by 39%, 44% and 40%. The Maximum VCI value was 0.60 and 0.67 for the first and third zones, implying near-average conditions while it was 0.35 in the second zone which implies below-average crop conditions. Cropping Intensity estimates were at 103%, 101% and 105% for the three zones, indicating all regions were dominated by single cropping during the investigation period. In the three zones, the CPI was at 0.47, 0.60 and 0.56, respectively, implying a below-normal crop production situation.

Figure 3.27 Morocco’s crop condition, July - October 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid northern highlands).and (g). Warm semiarid zones ) 

(h) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Warm subhumid zones

(i) Time series profile of rainfall （j)Time series profile of temperature

Table 3.45 Morocco’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2022

Table 3.46 Morocco’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2022