During this reporting period, the sowing of maize and wheat was underway during September and October, whereas the main rice was growing from July to September and was harvested in October. Macroeconomic difficulties, due to the political instability, have caused widespread loss of income and livelihoods due to internal displacements, accompanied by a sharp increase in fertilizer costs by 75 to 90% as compared to last year. According to the CropWatch monitoring results, crop conditions were below average for the monitoring period.

According to the agroclimatic indicators from the last few periods, the weather in Myanmar was drier than usual in general. Compared to the 15YA, RAIN was lower (-23%) while TEMP was higher (+0.7ºC) and RADPAR was up by 13%. As a result of insufficient of rainfall, BIOMSS was below the average (-3%). Compared to the 5YA, the utilization of cropland had slightly increased by 1%. NDVI values were below average during most of the monitoring period, except for mid-July, early August and early September. The maximum VCI during this period was 0.94.

As shown by the NDVI clusters map and profiles, the crop conditions across the country were heterogeneous. More than 60% of the country’s cropland showed above-average crop conditions during July and August. It was mainly distributed in Southern Sagaing Region, Ayeyarwady Region, Yangon Region, Bago Region, and throughout the Hills region. The remaining cropland was average and below average during the whole period, including the sowing season for maize and wheat during September and October. The high VCI values were observed throughout the country, and only some small parts in Central Plain and southern region showed lower VCI values.

Regional analysis

Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central plain (132), the Hills (134) and the Delta and Southern Coast regions (133).

The Central Plain had a marked rainfall deficit (RAIN -31%), and RADPAR and TEMP were up by 15% and 1.3ºC compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was 7% lower than the 15YA. CALF showed that 98% of the cropland was fully utilized. NDVI was average and above average during July and August. The VCIx was 0.91. Crop conditions for this region were slightly below average.

The Hills region also had below-average rainfall (RAIN -26%). RADPAR and TEMP increased by 18% and 0.6ºC. BIOMSS was equal to the 15YA. The cropland was almost fully utilized (CALF 99%). The NDVI values were similar to that of the Central Plain and the whole country. The VCIx was 0.93. Crop conditions are assessed as below the 5YA level.

The Delta and Southern Coast region had the highest RAIN compared with the other two sub-national regions, though it was also below the 15YA (-13%). RADPAR and TEMP were 2% and 0.1ºC above average. BIOMSS was almost comparable to the 15YA. The cropland was also almost fully utilized (CALF 96%). VCIx was 0.92. The NDVI values were below the 5YA during most of the period, especially in September and October. Crop conditions in this region were below average.

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, July– October 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Rainfall Profile

(d) Temperature Profile

(e)  Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) in Myanmar

(f)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to %5YA

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in central plain region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in hills region

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in delta and southern coast region

Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July– October 2022

Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July– October 2022