This report covers crop conditions for maize, wheat, soybean and rice between the months of July to October 2022 in Nigeria. In the northern region, maize and soybean sowing started in April/May, while in the south, it began in March/April depending on the start of rainfall. After 3 to 4 months, the early maturing crops reached maturity in July/August. Planting of rainfed rice started in April, followed by irrigated rice a month later. The harvesting of the 2022 main season crops, mainly maize, was completed in August in the south. In the rest of the country, rice, millet, and sorghum harvesting were expected to conclude in January 2023.

This monitoring period, which coincides with the peak of the rainfall season, recorded the maximum rainfall of 100 mm in a dekade in mid-August. Rainfall was generally consistent throughout the period. It was near the 15-year average. Early July and early August recorded a drop in rainfall. On average, rainfall was 20% below the 15YA. The average temperature was also lower than the 15YA (-0.2°C).   The recorded radiation decreased by 2%. As a result of  these factors, the BIOMSS also fell below the 15-year average by 4%. The observed maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.79 and the CALF was lower than the 15-year average (- 4%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that the NDVI was mostly below the 15-year average through out the reporting period. 

The Crop Condition Index (CPI) was generally normal through out the country. As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, 50% of the country, predominantly in the northern part, were slightly below the 15-year average  throughout the July to October period. About 16.7% of the total cropped areas were far below the 15-year average in early August, but returned to near average before the end of August and maintained that level for the rest of the period. Only a portion of 10.4% rose above the 15-year average for a very short period before dropping far below. Overall, the crop conditions in most parts of the country were near average and slightly better in the northern part of the country.

The southern part of the country experienced much more rainfall than usual during this period. This led to an increase in water levels. In addition, the release of excess water from Ladgo dam in the neighbouring Cameroon, together with the already increased water levels, led to flooding. It greatly affected lives and farming activities in the region. In addition, cereal production was affected by high production costs and conflicts. 

Regional Analysis 

The analysis focuses on four major agro-ecological zones in the country, i.e., Derived savanna zone (146) within the central region, Guinea savanna zone (147) and Humid Forest zone (148) situated in the southern region and Sudan-Sahel savanna zone (149) across the northern region. 

The Derived savanna region is a transition zone between the Guinea savanna and Humid Forest zones. The rainfall decreased by 26% below the 15-year average. The temperature was average. The radiation was unchanged and the BIOMSS fell below the 15-year average at -10%. The CALF was unchanged and the maximum VCI was 0.91. The CPI was normal at 1. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions trended below average, but were approaching average levels at the end of this monitoring period. 

The Guinea savanna zone is predominantly located in the central region of the country. Rainfall decreased by 14%, temperature was lower by 0.2°C,  while radiation was 3% lower, and BIOMSS was down by 6%. The CALF was lower by 1% and the maximum VCI was 0.90. The CPI was at 1, which indicates normal conditions. 

In the Humid Forest, the rainfall is rather high as compared to other regions, however it was below the 15-year average (-28%) and temperature was close to the 15-year average. The radiation decreased by 1% and the BIOMSS decreased by 4%. The CALF was near the 5-year average at -1% and the maximum VCI was 0.87. The CPI at 1 indicates that the crop conditions were  normal. The NDVI development graph trended below average, partly due to flooding.

In the Sudan-Sahel zone, the agro-climatic conditions showed that rainfall increased by 15% and the average temperature was 0.7°C below the 15-year average. The radiation decreased by 3%. The increase in rainfall and the decrease in temperature led to an increase in the BIOMSS which stood at +6%. However, CALF increased by 4% and the maximum VCI was 0.94, while CPI was also normal at 1. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were average almost throughout the period with a slight drop occurring only in early August.

Figures 3.34 Nigeria's crop condition, July-October 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

   (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                  (c)Maximum VCI

 (d) Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5YA and NDVI profiles                          (e)NDVI profiles

  (f) Time series temperature profile                                                                    (g) Time series rainfall profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left:Derived-savanna (146), Right: Guinean-savanna (147))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left: Right:Humid-forest (148), Right: Sudan-sahel (149))

Table 3.60 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA. July-October 2022

Table 3.61 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA. July-October 2022