This reporting period covers the production period for main maize and rice, which were harvested in October. It also covers the sowing of winter barley and wheat. 

RAIN was sharply above average (+72%), together with lower TEMP and RADPAR (-0.2°C and -6% respectively), which resulted in a significant increase of estimated BIOMSS (+37%). The dekad rainfall was above average for most dekads from July to August, except for first dekad in August, but it still exceeded last year's level. The significantly heavy monsoon rains influenced crops growing in many areas and caused flooding conditions, mainly in the provinces of Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) increased by 12% compared with the 5YA. However, that index takes are based on the maximum CALF value observed during the July to October period. It therefore does not account for the effects of the floods. According to CropWatch, about 8.6% of the country's rice fields were inundated causing a decrease of rice production by 9.6% as compared with 2021.

As shown by the nationwide NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below average in the first dekade of July, then reached average levels in later dekads. Further, according to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles, 17.0% of the cropped areas presented continuously below-average conditions during the reporting period, which were mostly distributed in the Sindh, southern Punjab and along the Lower Indus River. About 2.9% of cropland, concentrated in Sukkur and northern Sindh, presented largely below-average conditions after July. Since late August, an additional 26.9% of cropland in Punjab and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa presented below-average conditions. The continuous floods had a serious impact on crop growth in Sindh and parts of Punjab, where the maximum VCI was lower than 0.5. At the annual scale, cropping intensity increased by 14% indicating that the total cultivated crop area was at an above-average level. All in all, crop production estimates for the summer crops are below average.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agroclimatic conditions: the Lower Indus basin(150), the Northern highlands(151), and the Northern Punjab(152) region.

Compared to average, RAIN recorded above-average values (+411%) and TEMP was below average by 2.4°C in the Lower Indus basin. The estimated BIOMSS was 61% above average. NDVI was below average in early July, and later recovered to above maximum level. Since late August, the crop conditions were consistently below average mainly due to heavy rainfall and floods, distributed by northern Sindh and along Lower Indus basin. The CALF value of 66% exceeds the average by 9% and the VCIx was 0.87. Overall, summer crops production is expected to be below average.

In Northern highland region, RAIN decreased by 15%, RADPAR and TEMP were above average (+5% and +1.0°C respectively). BIOMSS decreased by 3%. The region showed a low CALF of 70%, but it was higher than the 5YA by 19%. The NDVI profile stayed above average during late July and early October and exceeded the maximum in August. The VCIx was high with 1.02. In short, the situation for the region is assessed as above average.

In Northern Punjab region, which is the main agricultural region of Pakistan, RAIN increased by 28%. TEMP and RADPAR were below average (-0.9°C and -3% respectively). The resulting BIOMSS was above average by 18%. The NDVI profile presented above average conditions during late July and late August due to abundant monsoon rains. Subsequently the crop conditions were slightly below average. In addition, CALF in this area reached 87%, which was up by 7% compared to the 5YA, and the VCIx was at 0.92. Overall, the summer crops production potential for the region are assessed as average.

Figure 3.23 Pakistan’s crop condition, July - October 2022

 (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus Basin)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highland）

 (h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Punjab) 

Table 3.56. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July - October 2022

  Table 3.57. Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July-October 2022