The monitoring period covers the harvest of spring and winter wheat in July and August, as well as the main growth period of maize and its harvest in October. Winter wheat sowing started in September and was completed in October.

Compared to the average for the same period of the last 15 years, Poland experienced drier and warmer weather. Temperature (TEMP +0.5°C) and radiation (RADPAR +1%) were above average from July to October, but significantly lower rainfall (RAIN -21%) resulted in a below-average biomass production potential (BIOMSS -8%).

The main grain crops were adversely affected during the flowering and grain filling periods due to the high temperature and drought conditions during the previous monitoring period. Although rainfall in July improved soil moisture conditions, a rainfall deficit and record high temperatures in early August continued to cause unfavorable conditions. This is also reflected in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, where NDVI was lower than the average of the last 5 years throughout the monitoring period. Warm weather in October caused favorable conditions for germination of winter wheat, but rainfall was below average. 

The crop growth clustering map shows that only about 32.2% of the arable land planted (marked in blue) had above-average crop growth, mainly located in the central region, where VCIx was above 0.8. CALF at the national level was 100% and VCIx was 0.84, while dry soil conditions have affected the replanting of cropland, as CI was only 99%, 8% below the average of the last 5 years.

Overall, crop growth in Poland seems to be slightly below average. Sowing conditions for winter wheat were close to normal.

Regional analysis

CropWatch sub-divides Poland into four zones according to the agro-ecological and farming characteristics, including: (a) the Northern oats and potatoes area covering the northern half of West Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria; (b) the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic Sea); (c) the Central rye and potatoes area (Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and (d) the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (Southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Sub-carpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders).

In the Northern oats and potatoes area and Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, above-average temperature (TEMP +0.8°C and +0.2°C, respectively), average radiation, significantly lower precipitation (RAIN -31% and -22%, respectively) resulted in below-average potential biomass (BIOMSS -15% and -11%, respectively). NDVI in both subregions were below the average of the last 5 years during entire monitoring period. CALF in both zones reached 100% and VCIx was 0.92 and 0.96, respectively. CI was below the 5-year average in both areas (-5% and -9%, respectively) due to low precipitation at key times throughout this period. CPI were 1.03 and 1.01, respectively. Crop conditions were below average in both subregions.

Compared to the average of the last 15 years, the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area experienced below-average precipitation (RAIN -19%), above-average temperature (TEMP +0.9°C) and radiation (RADPAR +2%), resulting in a below-average potential biomass (BIOMSS -7%). NDVI in this subregion was close to the average in July and September, and significantly below average in August because of drought stress. CALF was near 100% and CI was 105%, both of which were close to the average of the last 5 years. VCIx was 0.89 and CPI was 1.04, indicating normal crop conditions in this zone.

Similar to the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area, the Central rye and potatoes area experienced below-average rainfall (RAIN -16%), above-average temperature (TEMP +0.6°C) and radiation (RADPAR +1%). Potential cumulative biomass was below the 15-year average by 6% due to the dry and hot weather. NDVI in this subregion was close to the 5-year average only in early September and early October, and below average in the rest of the period. CALF was 100%. CI was 103%, 5% lower than 5-year average. With VCIx of 0.96 and CPI of 1.02, crop yields in this zone are likely to be slightly below or close to normal.

Figure 3.37 Poland’s crop condition, July - October 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X Time series rainfall pofile

图.X Time series temperature pofile

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                      (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern oats and potatoes area (left) and Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central rye and potatoes area (left) and Southern wheat and sugarbeet area (right))

Table 3.66 Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2022

Table 3.67 Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2022