Bulletin

wall bulletin
UkraineMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhuliang

This monitoring period covers the main growth period of maize and sunflowers and their harvest in September and October. Harvesting of winter wheat ended in July and sowing started in September.

According to the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators of CropWatch, this season in Ukraine was more humid than usual, both rainfall and temperature were above the 15YA (RAIN +10%, TEMP +0.1) , but sunshine was below average (RADPAR -7%). CropWatch predicted that the potential biomass was above the 15YA (+6%). Most cropland was cultivated (CALF 96%, +1%), and cropping intensity was 105% (-2%). Maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.82 and Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.04.

During this period, the crop conditions at the national level experienced an increase from below average to above average in the reporting period, but it was below average at the end of October. As shown in the spatial NDVI patterns, NDVI in about 87% area of cropland went from below average to above average from July to early October, but an obvious depression of NDVI was observed in middle October, which could be attributed to cloud cover or fog. Additionally, the ongoing war continues to negatively impact crop production, which led to the unfavorable crop conditions in southern Ukraine, as shown by the spatial VCIx pattern. VCIx was below 0.8 in that region. Overall, the situation was assessed as average except for the southern Ukraine, where conditions were unfavorable.


Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area (184) with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Eastern Carpathian hills (185) with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts; Northern wheat area (186) with Rivne and Southern wheat and maize area (187) with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

More rainfall and less sunshine than usual were recorded in the Central wheat area (RAIN +26%, RADPAR -9%) and Northern wheat area (RAIN +13%, RADPAR -14%). Temperature was close to average in the Central wheat area and it was slightly below average in Northern wheat area (-0.1). Potential biomass showed an above-average level in the Central wheat area (BIOMSS +14%) and Northern wheat area (BIOMSS +6%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions returned to the average in September and early October. Agronomic indicators also suggest the crop conditions were favorable in Central wheat area (CALF 100%, VCIx 0.85, CI +8%) and Northern wheat area (CALF 100%, VCIx 0.85, CI -1%). Overall, near-average or slightly above-average prospects can be expected.

In Southern wheat and maize area, both rainfall and temperature were above average (+14%, +0.4). Sunshine was below average (RADPAR -4%) . Potential biomass was above average (+8%). However, due to the war, CALF (91%), VCIx (0.73) and CI (-5%) were unfavorable. Considering the CPI value of 0.84, the situation is assessed as below average.

Eastern Carpathian hills recorded less rainfall (-14%), higher temperature (+0.3°C) and less sunshine (-5%). The potential biomass was below average (-7%). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI showed below-average crop conditions during the whole period. Although CALF (100%) and VCIx (0.85) were high, a low cropping index was also recorded (-16%). CPI (1.03) indicated a near or slightly below-average prospect.


Ukraine's crop condition, July -October 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)


Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  July - October 2022


RAINTEMPRADPARBIOMSS
RegionCurrent (mm)Departure from 15YA (%)Current (°C)Departure from 15YA (°C)Current (MJ/m2)Departure from 15YA (%)Current (gDM/m2)Departure from 15YA (%)
Central wheat area2302616.80.0867-967814
Eastern Carpathian hills236-1415.20.3909-5654-7
Northern wheat area2521315.4-0.1799-116706
Southern wheat and maize area1811418.90.4981-46388


Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2022


CALFCrop IntensityMaximum VCI
RegionCurrentDeparture from 5YA (%)CurrentDeparture from 5YA (%)Current
Central wheat area100011380.78
Eastern Carpathian hills100088-160.88
Northern wheat area1000103-10.84
Southern wheat and maize area910107-50.69