This reporting period from July to October 2022 covers the flowering, grain filling, and maturity stages of maize, rice, and soybeans, and the harvest of spring wheat in the United States. Overall, crop growth conditions were below average.

At the national level, the agro-climatic indicators show below-average rainfall (RAIN -9%) and radiation (RADPAR -1%), above-average temperature (TEMP +0.4ºC), which resulted in below-average potential biomass (BIOMSS +7%). Dry and warm weather was prevalent in the high plains and western Corn Belt. In particular, severe rainfall deficits occurred in the area from the Northern Plains to the Northwest Pacific, including Kansas (-55%), Oregon (-52%), North Dakota (-49%), Washington (-45%), Nebraska (-45%), Minnesota (-40%), Montana (-38%), Iowa (-27%), and Oklahoma (-28%). The temperatures in these rainfall-deficient areas were at least 0.4°C warmer than the 15-year average. Better agroclimatic conditions were widespread in the eastern Corn Belt, with near-average precipitation in Indiana (+6%), Illinois (-7%), Ohio (15%), and Michigan (-8%).

Spatial differences in agro-climatic conditions lead to diverse agronomic conditions. Poor crop conditions were prevalent in some areas of the Southern and Northern Plains (VCIx < 0.5), and acceptable crop conditions were prevalent in other areas (VCIx > 0.8). Nationally, below-average (-2%) cropped arable land fraction (CALF) occurred, in particular, the CALF in the Southern Plain was dramatically below average (-15%). NDVI deviation clusters and their curves also indicated a strong spatial variability in crop conditions. Good crop conditions prevailed in the eastern Corn Belt. Low rainfall caused below average conditions in the in the Southern Plain, western Corn Belt and some areas of the Northern Plains. In the major rice-producing area, below-average crop conditions were observed in the lower Mississippi River. 

In short, CropWatch assessed diverse crop conditions and overall slightly below average production in the United States. 

Figure 3.43 United States crop condition, July to October 2022

(a). Phenology of United States from July to October 2022

(b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c). Time series rainfall profile

(d). Time series temperature profile

(e). Maximum VCI

(f). Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Regional Analysis

The crop condition of the Corn Belt (191), Northern Plains (193), Lower Mississippi (192), Northwest (195), Southern Plains (196), and Southeast region (197) are summarized below.

(1) Corn Belt (191)

The Corn Belt covers Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan, and it is the most important maize and soybean-producing region in the United States. During this reporting period, dry and warm weather prevailed in the western Corn Belt, with below-average rainfall (-20%) and above-average temperatures (+0.3°C). The rainfall deficit occurred from late August to October that covers the maturity and harvest stages of soybean and maize. As mentioned above, extremely dry and hot agri-climatic conditions occurred in the western part of the Corn Belt but normal agri-climatic conditions were prevalent in the eastern part of the Corn Belt. Crop conditions were below average in July, then bounced close to the maximum of last 5 years in August, and finally dropped to average in September. VCIx reached 0.92 which suggested that the rainfall deficit from late August to October had little impact on the crop condition of the entire region. The Crop Production Index (CPI = 1.06) and above average cropping intensity (+6%) also indicated the acceptable crop condition. In short, CropWatch assessed that an average crop production could be expected. 

(g). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile, July to October

(2) Northern Plains (193)

The Northern Plains, which includes parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska, is the largest spring wheat-growing region and an important corn-producing region in the United States. The reporting period was characterized by extremely dry and hot weather, with precipitation 45% below average and temperatures 1.7°C warmer than the 15YA. The rainfall profile indicated a significant water deficit throughout the entire reporting stage, and the significant drought impacted the grain filling and yield formation. However, according to the NDVI development curve, conditions were better than last year and started to drop in August only, when spring wheat approched maturity. CALF (-1%), VCIx (0.75) and crop production index (0.98) reflected better than last year's and close to average conditions.

(h). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile, July to October

(3) Lower Mississippi (192)

It is the biggest rice-producing area and an important soybean producing zone in the United States. It includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. Average agri-climatic conditions occurred in Lower Mississippi. The slightly below-average rainfall (-6%) and RADPAR (-1%) and average temperature resulted in slightly below average potential biomass (-7%). The rainfall deficit occurred in Septermber and early October which has little effect on crops at the harvest stage.The average VCIx was 0.88 and the cropping intensity (10%) was above than average, while the NDVI profile showed that the crop growth reached the average level only from late August to early September during the monitoring period and was below average for the rest of the period. In short, CropWatch assessed that the crop production was not reached the average level.

(i). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile, July to October

(4) Northwest (195)

Northwest is an important spring wheat-producing area. During the monitoring period, spring wheat reached maturity and most of it was harvested by August. The NDVI profile indicated an average crop production situation in the region. Dry and hot weather prevailed during the monitoring period, with a significant rainfall deficit (-46%) and warmer than average temperatures (+1.8℃), and average RADAR, which resulted in a lower-than-average potential biomass (-15%). The water deficit which started in August had little impact on grain yield.  Significantly above average CALF (+9%), crop production index (1.26) and VCIx (0.88) also indicated good crop conditions. In short, CropWatch assessed that average crop production could be expected. 

(j). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile, July to October

(5) Southern Plains (196)

The Southern Plains is the most important region for winter wheat, sorghum, and cotton production, and it includes Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and eastern Colorado. Agri-climatic indicators show below-average rainfall and radiation (RAIN -13%, RADPAR -1%) and above-average temperatures (TEMP +0.8°C), which resulted in below average biomass production potential (BIOMSS -11%). According to the NDVI development map, crop conditions were poor and below the 5-year average for the entire monitoring period. CALF during the monitoring period was only 72% which is 15% lower than the 5YA. The crop production index (0.72) and VCIx (0.64) are far below the national average, indicating poor crop conditions. In short, CropWatch assessed that crop production in the Southern Plains as below average.

(k). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile, July to October

(6) Southeast region (197)

The Southeast is an important cotton and corn-producing region. It includes the states of Georgia, Alabama, and North Carolina. Below-average rainfall (-6%), temperature (-0.4℃), and RADPAR (-1%) occurred in the reporting period, which resulted in below-average potential biomass (BIOMSS -6%). According to the NDVI development profile, crop conditions were close to the 5-year average. The VCIx (0.88), crop production index(1.11) and significantly above-average cropping intensity (+13%) also indicated acceptable crop growth conditions in the Southeast. In short, CropWatch assessed that average crop production could be expected in this region.

(l). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall pofile, July to October

3.78.United States' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  July-October 2022

Table 3.79. United States’agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure,  July-October 2022