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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhuliang
The report covers the irrigated crop production season. The key irrigated crops are wheat, barley, green maize, and vegetables. According to MoA (Zambia) an estimated 2,300,000 MT of cereal production, including irrigated wheat at about 205,000 MT, was harvested in from September into October. Late-onset and reduced seasonal rains in the previous season, particularly in eastern parts, dampened production prospects for 2022 cereal crops. The recorded rainfall for this period was 2 mm (-88%). The temperature was average (21.7°C) and favorable for winter cropping, while average radiation was 1405MJ/m2 (+1.4%). The estimated biomass production was 397 gDM/m2 (-9.1%). CALF was above average (+2.1%) and maximum VCI was 0.88. The rain-fed cropping season begins in November. Thanks to irrigation, crop production levels were average.
Regional analysis
Zambia is classified into four major agroecological zones (AEZs), primarily based on rainfall amount but also incorporating soils and other climatic characteristics. These AEZs include: Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley (214), covering the major river valleys with rainfall less than 400-800 mm per year; Central-Eastern and Southern Plateau (216), with relatively fertile soils providing a backbone of agriculture production and Western Semi-Arid Plain (217) dominated by relatively poor sandy soils. The second and third AEZs receive mean annual rainfall of 800 -1000 mm, a growing season of 100 -140 days; and Northern High Rainfall Zone (215) occupying about 41% of the country. It receives mean annual rainfall of 1000-1500 mm, and a growing season of 120-150 days. Generally, in these agroecological zones, cereals (maize, sorghum, millets, and rice), root crops (cassava, sweet potato, and yams), fruits (banana, pineapples, and sugarcane), and several vegetables are the most important crops and they are predominantly under rainfed agriculture and low-input farming systems.
According to the agro-ecological region analysis, all the regions/zones received less than 4 mm rainfall which was less than the 15-year average. The average temperature in the regions varied from 21.0°C to 22.0°C with negligible departure (< 0.6ºC) from the average. The potential radiation across all four agro-ecological zones was more than 1380 MJ/m2 with the highest value for the Northern High Rainfall Zone (1435 MJ/m2 +2%) and resulted in negative BIOMSS departures in all regions, with Northern High Rainfall Region recording the highest departure (-13%). The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was highest for the Northern High Rainfall Zone (81%) and lower values in the three other zones: Luangwa-Zambezi Rift valley (47%), Central-Eastern and Southern Plateau (41%) and Western Semi-Arid Plateau (63%). The cropping intensity is above 99%, with negative departures observed in Central-Eastern & Southern Plateau (-1%) and Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley (-3%). The NDVI showed a positive departure from the 5YA, indicating reduced potential agricultural production in the three southern AEZs due mainly to reduced rainfall in these regions.
Table 1: Country's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2022
Code | Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Curren t (mm) | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current (°C) | Departure from 15YA (°C) | Current (MJ/m2 ) | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current (gDM/m 2) | Departure from 15YA (%) | ||
215 | Northern high rainfall zone | 4 | -89 | 21.4 | 0.2 | 1435 | 2 | 401 | -13 |
216 | Central-eastern and southern plateau | 1 | -88 | 21.8 | 0.3 | 1395 | 2 | 385 | -8 |
217 | Western semi-arid plain | 2 | -81 | 22.6 | 0.6 | 1382 | -1 | 429 | -3 |
214 | Luangwa Zambezi rift valley | 1 | -87 | 22.0 | 0.5 | 1387 | 0 | 391 | -7 |
Table 2: Country’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA/5YA, July - October 2022
Code | Region | CALF | Cropping Intensity | Maximum VCI | ||
Curren t (%) | Departure from 5YA (%) | Current (%) | Departure from 5YA (%) | Current () | ||
215 | Northern high rainfall zone | 81 | 1 | 113 | 8 | 0.85 |
216 | Central-eastern and southern plateau | 41 | 28 | 99 | -1 | 0.91 |
217 | Western semi-arid plain | 63 | 12 | 100 | 0 | 0.82 |
214 | Luangwa Zambezi rift valley | 47 | 52 | 97 | -3 | 0.91 |
Figure A: Phenology of main crops
Figure B: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI
Figure C: Time series rainfall profile
Figure D: Time series temperature profile
Figure E: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI
Figure F: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles