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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhuliang
After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 presents an updated estimate of major cereals and soybean production at provincial and national levels as well as summer crops production and total annual outputs (4.2) and describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of China: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Section 4.4 describes trade prospects of major cereals and soybean. Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is listed in table A.11 in Annex A.
4.1 Overview
From the perspectives of agroclimatic indicators, the overall conditions were generally normal in China from July to October 2022. The only exception was that the drought and heat affected Lower Yangtze River basin. Temperature and radiation were above average by 0.8°C and 9%, respectively, while rainfall was 27% below average. As a result, the potential biomass was 7% smaller than the 15YA. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was quite high at 0.92. The national Cropping Intensity (CI) was 5% above the 5YA, but was close to that of 2021. Moreover, the mean of CALF for the whole country was at an average level compared to the 5YA. The national mean value of Crop Production Index (CPI) is 1.16, indicating a good crop production status.
Over the entire growing period, all of the main agricultural regions of China except Northeast China (+21%) recorded below-average rainfall, with the largest negative departure occurring in Lower Yangtze region (-47%). According to the spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, blue marked regions (62.6% of the cultivated regions) had slightly above average rainfall during the whole monitoring period, while other cultivated regions had below-average rainfall almost during the whole monitoring period. It is worth noting that 7.7% of the cultivated regions (marked in light green) experienced positive rainfall departure larger than 150 mm/dekad, mainly located in Guangdong and some parts of Hunan, Guangxi, and Fujian.
Six of the main agricultural regions in China recorded above-average temperatures ranging from +0.3℃ (Inner Mongolia) to +1.2℃ (Lower Yangtze region), while only Northeast China recorded below-average temperatures with negative departures of -0.3°C. The map of the spatial distribution of temperature profiles indicates that temperatures fluctuated during the monitoring period as follows: 30.3% of the cultivated regions experienced relatively smoother temperature variation, while other regions had some fluctuations in temperature during certain periods. 34.4% of the cultivated regions suffered from positive temperature departure larger than +3.0℃ in early and middle August, mainly located in northern parts of Lower Yangtze region, Southwest China and some parts of Loess region and Huanghuaihai region. The rest 35.3% of the cultivated regions mainly had below-average temperature during the whole monitoring period, mainly distributed in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and some parts in Huanghuaihai region.
As for RADPAR, all of the main agricultural regions in China received average or above-average radiation as compared to the 15YA. With respect to BIOMSS, only Northeast China had positive departures of 9% as a result of abundant rainfall, while all the others had negative BIOMSS departure with a range from -20% (Lower Yangtze region) to -4% (Loess region and Huanghuaihai). As can be seen in the spatial distribution of potential biomass departure from the 15YA, most parts of China had negative departures, but there were areas with positive departures, mainly concentrated in some parts in Shandong, Liaoning and Jilin, as confirmed by the statistics at AEZ level.
The VCIx values were all greater than or equal to 0.89 in all of the main producing regions of China, with values between 0.89 (Lower Yangtze region) and 0.96 (Northeast China). Nationally, CALF was average in all AEZs of China as compared to the 5YA. Among them, Inner Mongolia recorded slightly below-average CALF (-1%) while all the remaining regions showed an average CALF. When it comes to the cropping intensity (CI), values of 200% are mainly concentrated in the North China Plain with the wheat-maize rotation system while values of 300% are sparsely distributed in Southwestern and Southern China. The largest CI departure occurred in Southwest China (+18%), and CI in Lower Yangtze River, Southwest, Huanghuaihai, and the Loess region presented above 5YA CI but was in general close to that of 2021.VHIn maps show that agricultural drought mainly occurred in Southwest China and Lower Yangtze region, especially in the provinces of Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hubei, and Hunan. The combination of high temperatures and drought caused unfavorable conditions for rice production in these provinces. Regarding CPI values for AEZs, Northeast China had the biggest CPI value at 1.19 under agreeable agroclimatic conditions.
Table 4.1 CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, July to Oct 2022, departure from 15YA and 5YA
region | RAIN Departure from 15YA(%) | TEMP Departure from 15YA(℃) | RADPAR Departure from 15YA(%) | BIOMSS Departure from 15YA(%) | CALF Departure from 5YA(%) | Cropping Intensity Departure from 5YA(%) | Maximum VCI Current |
Huang Huaihai | -14 | 0.8 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 8 | 0.92 |
Inner Mongolia | -8 | 0.3 | 4 | -5 | -1 | 1 | 0.93 |
Loess region | -10 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 4 | 0.93 |
Lower Yangtze rtegion | -47 | 1.2 | 13 | -20 | 0 | 12 | 0.89 |
North East China | 21 | -0.3 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.96 |
Southern China | -23 | 0.7 | 12 | -8 | 0 | 11 | 0.92 |
South-West China | -28 | 1.1 | 12 | -8 | 0 | 18 | 0.93 |
Figure 4.1 China crop calendar
Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, July to Oct 2022
Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, July to Oct 2022
Figure 4.4 China cropped and uncropped arable land, by pixel, July to Oct 2022
Figure 4.5 China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, July to Oct 2022
Figure 4.6 China biomass departure map from 15YA, by pixel, July to Oct 2022
Figure 4.7 China minimum Vegetation Health Index (VHIn), by pixel, July to Oct 2022
Figure 4.8. China Cropping Intensity (CI), by pixel, 2022