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Major crops trade prospectsChina

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhuliang

International trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China

Maize

In the first three quarters, China imported 18.463 million tonnes of maize, a decrease of 25.9% over the previous year. The main import source countries were the United States and Ukraine, accounting for 71.8% and 26.6% of the total import, respectively, and the import volume was US $6.253 billion. The export of maize was 900 tonnes, a decrease of 79.9% over the previous year. The export volume was US $1.316 million, mainly to Angola and Tajikistan.

Rice

In the first three quarters, China imported 5.048 million tonnes of rice, an increase of 40.7% over the previous year. The main import source countries were India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Myanmar and Thailand, accounting for 40.6%, 22.1%, 11.7%, 11.0% and 9.6% of the total import, respectively. The import volume was US $2.105 billion. The export of rice was 1.626 million tonnes, a decrease of 12.1% over the previous year, mainly exported to Egypt, Turkey, Papua New Guinea, South Korea and Sierra Leone, accounting for 24.8%, 10.9%, 8.4%, 8.2% and 7.3% of the total export, respectively, with an export volume of US $748 million.

Wheat

In the first three quarters, China imported 6.622 million tonnes of wheat, a decrease of 12.8% over the previous year. The main import source countries were Australia, France and Canada, accounting for 68.8%, 22.0% and 8.9% of the total import, respectively. The import volume was US $2.472 billion. The wheat export was 107,500 tonnes, an increase of 94.1% over the previous year, and the export volume was US $51.343 million.

Soybean

In the first three quarters, China imported 69.047 million tonnes of soybeans, a decrease of 6.7% over the previous year. The main sources of imports were Brazil and the United States, accounting for 67.3% and 28.0% of the total import, respectively. The import volume was US $46.502 billion. Soybean exports were 78,600 tonnes, an increase of 57.3% over the previous year, mainly exported to South Korea, Japan and North Korea, accounting for 56.8%, 18.7% and 6.4% of the total export, respectively. The export volume was US $94.639 million.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2022

On the basis of remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2022 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, it is predicted that the import of major grain crops will increase slightly in 2022. The details are as follows:

In 2022, China's maize import will decrease significantly by 21.2% year on year, with exports predicted to drop by 70.5%. Affected by extreme high temperature and drought, maize production in both the EU and the United States will be reduced. The global maize production will decrease by 3%. The overall maize price has been on the rise during the early stages of the crisis in Ukraine. From the domestic perspective, the demand for processing of maize has declined, and imports from Ukraine have decreased due to the impact of geopolitical risks. It is expected that China's maize import will decline significantly in 2022.

In 2022, China's rice import will increase by 52.4% and export will decrease by 11.2%. Due to the impact of drought and waterlogging in major producing countries, the global rice production is expected to decrease, but the decrease is not significant. Driven by the price difference of rice at home and abroad, and the strong demand for broken rice for feeding and processing, China's rice import has kept growing, but a slowdown in imports in the fourth quarter may be expected due to India's rice export restrictions.

In 2022, China's wheat import will decrease by 22.5% and its export will increase by 70.4% in 2022.Global wheat supply and demand has continued to ease in recent months. However, due to the crisis in Ukraine and other factors, wheat prices fluctuate greatly and remain at a high level. It is expected that wheat import will decrease significantly in 2022.

In 2022, China's soybean import will decrease by 6.6% and its export will increase by 20.1% in 2022. Affected by the drought and flood weather at the beginning of the year, the output of the main soybean producing countries in South America have been slightly reduced, but by a small margin. The global soybean supply prospects are optimistic and remain in tight balance. Due to the comprehensive impact of various factors such as the international soybean price hitting a new high, an increase in the domestic soybean oil production, the decline of feed demand, and the low crushing profit, it is expected that China's soybean import will decrease significantly throughout the year.


Figure 4.16 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2022 (%)