Global Crop Production Index

Figure 5.1 Global crop production index from July to October of the past 10 years

Production estimates

The year of 2022 has been marked by frequent and extreme weather conditions caused by climate change. Heat waves, droughts, floods, regional conflicts, and the continuing COVID-19 pandemic have increased the uncertainty in global food production. Total global production of major cereal and oil crops decreased, challenging the goal of reaching Zero Hunger by 2030.

图5.2 Global Maximum Vegetation Condition Index, July-August 2022

The global production of majors crops for 2022 is expected to be 2859.86 million tonnes with a decrease by 44.10 million tonnes (-1.5%) from 2021. Maize production is expected to be 1045.17 million tonnes with a decrease of 32.01 million tonnes (-3.0%), which is the largest reduction in the past five years. Rice production is expected to be 754.57 million tonnes with a decrease of 9.45 million tonnes (-1.2%) from 2021. Wheat production is expected to be 740.07 million tonnes, a reduction of 2.32 million tonnes, a drop by 0.3% from 2021. Soybean production is expected to be 320.05 million tonnes with a decrease of 0.32 million tonnes (-0.1%) from the previous year.

Maize: The global maize production in 2022 is lower than in 2021, but with significant variations among countries and regions. The major producers in tropical to subtropical regions in the Northern Hemisphere and those in the Southern Hemisphere had expanded their maize cultivation area and their production increased. Other major producers in the Northern Hemisphere were affected by high temperature and dry weather, causing a decline in both cropping area and yield, with overall productions lower than in 2021 for most countries. In the summer of 2022, extreme heat and dry weather had an adverse impact on agricultural production in Europe, damaging maize production in Germany, Romania, Hungary, France, and Italy, with a larger than 10% yield drop from 2021. The Ukraine crisis, combined with significantly lower rainfall in the mid-west part of the country, resulted in a sharp fall of both maize area and average yield. Maize production in Ukraine declined to 25.37 million tonnes, the largest drop of 10.58 million tonnes (-29.4%) from 2021 in agricultural producing countries. In the Horn of Africa, Kenya and Ethiopia suffered from a severe drought, resulting in decreased maize area and yield. Maize production in both countries decreased by 15.3% from 2021. High temperature, as well as flooding conditions also affected Western African countries such as Nigeria, resulting in a reduction of 7.9% maize production. The United States, as the world's top maize producer, experienced a decline in maize area. The maize production is projected at 363.6 million tonnes, down by 17.50 million tonnes, which is the largest reduction of production among the maize producing countries. Thanks to the increase in area and average yield, Kyrgyzstan maize production is projected to be up by 24.2% from last year, the largest increase in terms of percentage of maize production. Maize production in India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and the Philippines were slightly increased with the general favorable agro-climatic conditions.

Rice: Most of Southeast Asia experienced favorable rice growth in the dry season, but with an uneven rainfall distribution in the rainy season. Thailand, Indonesia and Cambodia had significantly higher rainfall and some area suffered from flooding, resulting in a reduction of 3.7%, 1.6% and 1.5% in rice production, respectively; Vietnam and Philippines had normal agro-meteorological conditions, with rice production increased by 0.2% and 3.6%, respectively. In Central and North-central India, rainfall was significantly below average during the growing season, India's rice production is expected to decline by 3.2%. Pakistan had experienced significantly above average rainfall, which caused severe flooding in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces, causing a decrease of rice production by 9.5%. Due to the reduced rice planted area in the United States, rice production declined by 5.7%. Benefitting from irrigation systems, rice production in Egypt and Iran increased by 1.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Nigeria suffered from insecurity and floods, resulting in a reduced rice area and yield compared with those of last year, with a decrease of 4.2% in rice production. Argentina and Brazil are the top rice producers in the Southern Hemisphere. Rice planted area in both countries was reduced from 2021, resulting in rice production decreases by 2.9% and 4.2%, respectively.

Wheat: Global wheat cultivated area in 2022 decreased from the previous year. In addition, drought and extreme heat caused unfavorable conditions in some producing regions. The global wheat production has declined for the last two years, tightening wheat supply situation. In autumn of 2021, Northern Hemisphere winter wheat producers experienced overall poor agro-climatic conditions during the sowing period. Drought and lack of soil moisture in Europe, the Middle East, southern part of North America hampered the sowing of winter wheat, resulting in reduced planted area. The temperature in Western and Central Europe was abnormally higher than average since May, leading to a shorter wheat grain-filling period in most European countries. Wheat production was generally lower than in 2021. As the most severely affected country, Romania’s wheat production decreased by 13.2%. Due to continued drought, major wheat-producers, such as Afghanistan and Iran saw declines in wheat yield, with production down by 7.4% and 13.4%, respectively. Although wheat planted area in Ukraine increased, the dry weather negatively affected wheat yield. The Ukraine Crisis resulted in the damage of wheat fields and affected the wheat harvest. The total wheat production in Ukraine is expected to be 21.43 million tonnes, down by 11.1%. Thanks to the increased wheat yield and planted area, wheat production in Kazakhstan, Russia and Uzbekistan increased by 15.3%, 13.5% and 11.0%, respectively. Argentina, South Africa and Kenya in Southern Hemisphere experienced serious droughts, resulting in a decline in wheat yields. Wheat production decreased by 28.7%, 12.4% and 7.5%, respectively; Australia and Brazil wheat yields and planted area have increased, prompting wheat production increases by 8.9% and 5.6%, respectively.

Soybeans: Soybean production in major soybean exporting countries overall declined from 2021, under a generally normal situation of soybean supply. The United States is the world's largest soybean exporter. Due to the slight reduction of cultivated area, the low rainfall and high temperature in its main soybean producing areas in June and July, affecting soybean flowering and podding, production of soybean is estimated at 101.71 million tonnes with a decrease of 2.9%. The soybean planted area increased in Brazil but was affected by persistent drought and continued high temperature in the main production areas, which reduced soybean yields for two consecutive years. Production fell to 95.14 million tons, a decrease of 1.2%. Soybean area in Argentina was reduced, but yield increased by 2.1%, offsetting the impact of reduced area. Production is estimated at 51.77 million tonnes, with an increase of 0.16 million tonnes or up by 0.3%. Soybean production in Canada and India decreased by 0.25 million tonnes (-3.2%) and 0.45 million tonnes (-3.5%), respectively, while Russian soybean production increased by 0.24 million tonnes (+6.7%). It is noteworthy that, China, the largest soybean importer, increased its soybean area significantly in 2022, prompting an increase by 3.84 million tonnes. This increase offsets reductions of soybean production in the United States and Brazil.

Table 5.1 2022 cereal and soybean production estimates in thousand tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change of 2022 production when compared with corresponding 2021 values.