The current CropWatch bulletin describes world-wide crop condition and food production as appraised by data up to the end of April 2023. It is prepared by an international team coordinated by the Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. 

The assessment is based mainly on remotely sensed data. It covers prevailing agri-climatic conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones in all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports (the "core countries") while chapter 4 zooms into China. Special attention is paid to the production outlook of main crop producing and exporting countries where major cereal and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybean) are harvested this year or currently still in the field. Subsequent sections of Chapter 5 describe the global disasters that occurred from January to April 2023. 

Agroclimatic conditions 

Europe had its warmest January and the second warmest winter since the start of industrialization. Global warming does not only affect temperatures. Another record was set by tropical cyclone Freddy, which traversed the southern Indian Ocean for more than five weeks in February and March 2023. It was the longest-lasting and highest accumulated cyclone energy-producing tropical cyclone ever recorded worldwide. It started on February 5, 2023, off the coast of Australia and finally dissipated on March 14 over Mozambique. It caused flooding conditions in southeast Africa, mainly in Malawi. La Niña ended its unusually long cycle, which lasted for three years and caused droughts in East Africa and Argentina. It also brought abundant rainfall to Australia. The end of La Niña already improved the rainfall situation in Argentina and East Africa. Another noteworthy improvement is the end of the multi-year drought in the West of the USA. California benefitted from abundant precipitation caused by a series of so-called atmospheric rivers, which helped restore groundwater and replenish reservoirs. 

Global crop production situation 

In the current monitoring period, the Crop Production Index (CPI) for global crop production improved from 1.12 to 1.15, indicating slightly better conditions. It was still slightly lower than the 10-year average (CPI=1.16) and significantly lower than the 1.21 value obtained for 2020.

Maize:  In Brazil, production of the less important first maize decreased, while the cultivation area and yield of second maize increased, bringing Brazilian maize production to 100.68 million tonnes (+10.3%).  However, in Argentina, the drought caused a decrease in production by 9.6%. In Africa south of the Equator, rainfall was somewhat irregular, but all in all, production levels remained unchanged. 

Early monitoring indicators of crop cultivation area based on remote sensing indicate that the progress of maize planting in the United States and Canada is slower, lagging behind by 8% and 10%, respectively. However, maize planting in most European countries is progressing much faster. Soil moisture conditions for crop establishment have been mostly favorable in North America and Europe. Global maize production is estimated to increase by 0.4% to 1,049 million tonnes.

Rice: Production of irrigated rice during the dry winter-season was generally normal in South and Southeast Asia, with small increases in rice production in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Sri Lanka. Small decreases in rice cultivation area in Bangladesh (-3%), Cambodia (-2.2%), Myanmar (-1.7%), India (-1.4%) and the Philippines (-0.8%) were estimated. The production also decreased in Angola (-4.5%), Argentina (-3%) and Brazil (-0.6%) due to drought conditions. As a result, global rice production decreased by 0.5% to 750.87 million tonnes. 

Wheat: Conditions for wheat production were rather favorable in India (+1.9%) and Pakistan (+1.2%), resulting in an increase by 1.9% and 1.2% respectively. In China, untimely frost and snow in April had caused yield reductions in Shanxi (-3.2%), western Hubei (-4.7%), and eastern Gansu (-4.4%). However, in the North China Plain, both area and yield increased in Henan and the neighboring provinces. At the national level, production increased by 1.8% to 136,33 million tonnes. In the USA, Kansas, an important winter wheat producer, continued to be affected by drought conditions. Wheat production in the USA is forecasted to drop by 5.2% to 48,870 million tonnes. Conditions in Morocco were slightly better than last year, resulting in an increase in production by 14.8% to 6.94 million tonnes. Similarly, production in Turkey is estimated to increase by 12.7% to 18.99 million tonnes. Winter wheat production in Western, Central and Eastern Europe benefitted from a mild winter with above average precipitation. Hence, a higher production than in 2022 can be expected. Global wheat production is estimated to increase by 0.7% to 745,53 million tonnes.

Soybean: The soybean production of Brazil and Argentina is only second to that of the United States. CropWatch predicts that Brazil's soybean production will reach 108.4 million tonnes (+13.9%) due to an expansion of the cultivated area and favorable weather conditions resulting in higher yields. In Argentina, the drought conditions caused a reduction in area and yield, resulting in a production by 18.9% to 42,01 million tonnes. Conditions for sowing have been favorable in North America and Europe. Global soybean production is estimated to increase by 2.2% to 327,17 million tonnes.