This reporting period runs from January to April 2023. It covers the growing season for the winter cereals, which includes the tillering, green-up, jointing and heading periods. Overall, crop conditions for winter cereals were poor due to severe drought in the major production regions, especially in Kansas and the surrounding states.

Agronomic conditions in North America were close to average, with rainfall and temperature above average (RAIN +4% and TEMP +1.3°C), while radiation was lower than average(RADPAR -5%) and biomass production potential was above average (BIOMSS +3%). The results of the cluster analysis showed that the temperature fluctuated dramatically in the main production areas. After a warm period in January, temperatures began to drop in late February, reaching 4-5°C below average in mid-March, affecting the winter wheat production areas of the Southern Plains. In mid-April, temperatures warmed up to 0-4°C above average. It seems that the unusually cold temperatures did not cause much damage to wheat, but they slowed its growth and development. Rainfall was rather stable and evenly distributed. In the Corn Belt and Great Plains, it was above average until March, after which it dropped to below average in the Southern Plains. However, during the previous observation period, persistent meteorological drought conditions in North Texas and Kansas were observed. That area continued to experience below average precipitation starting from mid March, resulting in a potential biomass estimation that was 20% below average. The VCIx value of 0.71 indicates average crop conditions. Regions with low VCIx values (<0.5) were mainly located in the southern part of the main winter wheat production area, coinciding with drought conditions indicated by the Minimum VHI map. CALF was 10% lower than the average of the last 5 years.

In summary, CropWatch assessed conditions for winter cereals for this monitoring period as below average. This period is a critical growth stage for winter wheat, and significantly reduced cropland acreage across the region and drought in the Southern Plains will result in below-average winter wheat yields in the region.

Figure 2.2 North America MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, January - April 2023

(a) Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles

(b) Spatial distribution of temperature profiles

(c) Cropped and uncropped arable land

(d) Potential biomass departure from 15YA

(e) Maximum VCI

(f)  VHI Minimum