3.1 Overview

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 42 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports have been dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Together, they have supplied three quarters of maize being traded internationally. So far, the Ukraine has been able to sustain exports at a relatively high level, despite the war. Above average precipitation in recent months has helped with replenishing soil moisture and provided favorable conditions for maize planting and crop establishment. However, many other factors, such as the cost and availability of inputs and the war situation, impact production levels as well. In Argentina, conditions for maize production were generally unfavorable, although the rainfall situation gradually improved over the summer months. However, yields of late sown maize are generally lower. While precipitation in Brazil was also far below average, it was still sufficient to ensure good yields. In the USA, a cool spring, yet combined with favorable moisture conditions, delayed the sowing and germination of maize. However, prospects for USA maize production remain favorable. Maize production in South Asia, as well as in Southern Africa, is mostly for domestic consumption. In South Asia, maize production during the dry winter months usually takes place under irrigated conditions. They were generally favorable, although high temperatures during the grain filling period were recorded in Bangladesh and India. In South-East Asia, drier than usual conditions caused water stress conditions. However, rainfall was still sufficient in the first half of the growing season. In East Africa south of the Equator, the prolonged drought impacted production in Tanzania and Kenya. Whereas in southern Africa, rainfall tended to be irregular, yet on average, it was sufficient to ensure normal production.

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Rice: Conditions for winter (Rabi) season rice production were generally favorable in India, the largest rice exporter. The region of irrigated dry season (Boro) rice production is limited to West Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Assam. However, Boro rice yields are much higher than those obtained in the Kharif (rainy) season. Another region with important dry season rice production is Southeast Asia. Thailand and Vietnam rank in the 2nd and the 3rd position of exporting countries. In these two countries, crop conditions were favorable, thanks to average water levels in the Mekong river. However, the rainfall deficit registered during this monitoring period may negatively impact rice production in the coming months. In anticipation of drought conditions, Thailand already asked its farmers to reduce the irrigation of paddy fields. Conditions in the Philippines and Indonesia were favorable. In Brazil, the prolonged rainfall deficit hampered the production of rice in  Rio Grande do Sul, the main rice-producing state. Similarly, Entre Rios and Corrientes, the two main rice production provinces of Argentina, also suffered from drought conditions, which negatively impacted production levels. In the USA, favorable rainfall conditions in California and the South, will help ensure good conditions for rice planting.

Wheat: During this monitoring period, wheat reached maturity in the Maghreb, Middle East and South Asia. Production in the Maghreb, which predominantly takes place under rainfed conditions, suffered from a severe rainfall deficit. Conditions were better than last year, but still below average. Drought conditions prevailed in Jordan and Syria, whereas in Iran, conditions were close to normal. For Afghanistan, low production levels are anticipated, due to the multi-year drought and bad governance. In South Asia, which includes the second largest wheat producer, India, as well as Pakistan, conditions were normal. Wheat reached maturity before the onset of the first heat waves. In the USA, dry conditions in Kansas, the most important winter wheat producing state, and the surrounding regions prevailed. Below average production has to be expected. In Canada, conditions were normal for Ontario. In southern Europe, the regions bordering the Mediterranean Sea were affected by drought conditions. Conditions were favorable in Western, Central and Eastern Europe. Precipitation levels ranged from average to above average and temperatures were also warmer than usual. In China, conditions for winter wheat production were favorable.

Soybean: In the USA, Canada and Ukraine, soybean sowing started at the end of this monitoring period, in late April. Soil moisture conditions are mostly favorable in these countries, but in Ukraine, the war causes high uncertainties for its production and export. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay produce more than half of the world's soybeans traded on the international market. Soybean production in Argentina and neighboring Uruguay was hampered by drought conditions, causing large yield losses. Conditions were favorable in Paraguay and Brazil.

2. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

2.1 Rainfall

In South America, rainfall was far below average in most countries. The only exceptions were the Dry Pampas and the foothills of the Andes in Argentina and Paraguay, where rainfall exceeded the 15YA by more than 30%.  Only Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru had average rainfall, although the distribution within these countries was not even. The highlands in the Andes were impacted by drought conditions, which caused a reduction in potato and maize production. The coastal regions of Peru faced several floods. Despite the large rainfall deficit in Brazil, rainfall levels were generally still sufficient to ensure good crop production in most of the country. All of Central America, including Mexico, suffered from a severe rainfall deficit. However, most of the crop production takes place during the summer months in that region. Abundant rainfall ended the prolonged drought in the West and Southwest of the USA. Above average precipitation was also recorded for the South of the USA. Only Kansas, which is important for US winter wheat production, continued to be affected by a rainfall deficit in the range of -10 to -30%.

The Iberian Peninsula was affected by a rainfall deficit of more than 30%. Winter wheat production in the Maghreb was also reduced by the second year of drought conditions in a row. Conditions in France and Italy generally improved, although the deficit was still in the range of -10 to -30%. Normal to above normal precipitation was registered for Central and Eastern Europe, and Turkey.

Apart from the Maghreb, Egypt and Sudan, crop production during this period is not relevant in Africa north of the Equator. Hence, the general rainfall deficits had a limited impact on local food production. Rainfall in southern Africa was somewhat irregular, but still sufficient to sustain crop production. However, Kenya and Tanzania continued to be affected by the multi-year drought conditions.

The prolonged drought conditions in Afghanistan continued, hampering the production of winter wheat. In the Indo-Gangetic Plains, most winter wheat production takes place under irrigation. Hence, the rainfall deficit had little impact on wheat production. Rainfall conditions turned from normal to below normal for mainland South-East Asia and Southern China. This will negatively impact water flow in the Mekong River in the coming months. Precipitation was normal to above normal in Central and Northern China.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of January 2023  to April 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in percent.

(2) Temperatures

The temperature profile tends to show opposite trends as compared to rainfall. Regions with above-average rainfall experienced relatively cooler conditions, whereas, in dryer-than-usual regions, temperatures were above average. Temperatures in most of South America were above average. Especially in Brazil and Argentina. However, in those countries, they do not tend to limit crop production. In the USA, the West experienced below, and the East above average temperatures. In Europe, including the regions of Eastern Ural, temperatures ranged from average to above average. Notably, the milder temperatures were combined with more humid conditions. In most of China, temperatures were warmer than usual. For almost all of Africa, average temperatures had been recorded.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of January 2023  to April 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in °C .

2.3 RADPAR

In Argentina and Brazil, conditions continued to be heterogeneous. However, negative departures dominated these 2 countries. Almost all of North America experienced below average solar radiation levels to various degrees. Solar radiation was below average  by more than -3% in Western, Central and Eastern Europe. The Iberian Peninsula and Maghreb, which had been affected by drought conditions, had above average levels of solar radiation. In south-eastern Africa, solar radiation also tended to be above average, whereas it was generally below average in the other African nations. Central Asia experienced above average solar radiation levels, whereas the opposite was the case for South Asia. All of South-East Asia and southern China had above average solar radiation levels.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of January 2023  to April 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in percent.

2.4 Biomass production

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly tropical ones, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high-latitude regions, the temperature may also limit biomass production. In the central and eastern crop production regions of Brazil, the estimated biomass production was mostly far below average (<-10%). The opposite was the case for the Dry Pampas of Argentina Paraguay, where biomass production was above the 15YA by more than 10%. Conditions were less favorable in Central America. For California and the Eastern halves of the USA and Canada, above average production was estimated in the range of +5 to above +10%. In the drought-stricken Iberian Peninsula and the Maghreb, production was estimated to be below the 15YA by more than -10%. Normal to above normal production estimates were calculated for the rest of Europe. A drop in biomass production was estimated for southern Africa, whereas above average production levels were calculated for the Horn of Africa.  In Central Asia, production levels were far below average (<-10%), as well as in mainland Southeast Asia. For most of China, normal to above normal production levels were estimated.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of of January 2023  to April 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in percent.