Winter and spring wheat were the primary cereal crops cultivated in Afghanistan. Winter wheat was mainly grown in the northern border provinces and harvested in May, while spring wheat was planted between March and April.

The agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN decreased by 38%, TEMP increased by 0.9°C and RADPAR increased by 3%. BIOMSS decreased by 19% as compared to the 15YA. The CALF decreased by 11%, reaching only 11%, and the VCIx was recorded at 0.48.

According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, crop growth across the country remained close to the average level in February and March but was below average in January and April. However, throughout the entire monitoring period, the crop growth was lower than last year.

According to the last CropWatch bulletin, it was found that negative NDVI departures were observed in 44% of the cultivated land areas in January, predominantly in the northern regions of Afghanistan. These anomalies can be attributed to exceptionally cold weather conditions and heavy snowfall. The affected areas have been experiencing the coldest winter in the past 15 years, with temperatures plummeting as low as minus 34º C. The TEMP rapidly increased in February and March to above the average levels. It returned to the average level in April. In March, precipitation in Afghanistan was close to its highest level in 15 years, leading to floods in the northern region, especially in the Balkh province. 

In addition, as shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, in regions covering 41.9% of the total cropped areas, namely Kandahar, Juzjan, and Herat provinces, the crop growth was below average. Conversely, in regions covering 10.7% of the total cropped areas, particularly Kunduz and Juzjan, the crop growth was above average. Additionally, in regions covering 24.9% of the total cropped areas, including Takhar province, Badghis, and the northern parts of Herat, the crop growth was affected by a temperature drop in mid to late January, resulting in below-average growth during that month. Maximum VCI showed similar results. In addition, the CPI of Afghanistan was 0.92, indicating a poor overall agricultural production situation.

Afghanistan has experienced a multi-year drought. Precipitation levels continued to stay far below average. Therefore, conditions for winter cereals were unfavorable, further threatening the food security of the people. 

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography. They are described below as Central region with sparse vegetation (1), Dry region (2), Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region (3), and Mixed dry farming and grazing region (4).

The RAIN in the Central region with sparse vegetation was 158 mm (-42%). The TEMP was 2.3°C (+2.1°C). The RADPAR was 1022MJ/m2, at an average level. BIOMSS experienced a 6% decrease, CALF had increased by 2% and VCIx was 0.58. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the crop conditions in this region were below average level in January and generally close to the average between February to April.

The Dry region recorded 153 mm of rainfall (RAIN -29%), TEMP was higher than average at 9.9°C (+1.2°C), and RADPAR was 1058 MJ/m2. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were below average. CALF in this region was only 4% and VCIx was 0.29.

In the Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region, the following indicator values were observed: RAIN 258 mm (-38%); TEMP 4.1°C (+0.5°C); RADPAR 946 MJ/m2 (+6%). BIOMSS decreased by 16% and CALF was 12% below average. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, NDVI was close to the average level during February and March and below the average level in January and April. VCIx was 0.59.

The Mixed dry farming and grazing region recorded 101 mm of rainfall (RAIN -54%). TEMP was 7.7°C (+1.2°C) and RADPAR was 1008 MJ/m2, near average levels. CALF was 9%. VCIx was 0.48. BIOMSS experienced a significant decrease of 29%. According to the crop condition development graph, the NDVI was much lower than the 5YA in January and April, indicating poor conditions.

Figure 3.5 Afghanistan’s crop condition, January - April 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                  (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                   (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                             (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_Veg Region (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_Irrigated Region (left) and Dry (right))

Table 3.2 Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2023

Table 3.3 Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2023