Winter wheat, which was sown in October, is the major crop in the field during this monitoring period. The nationwide rainfall had increased compared to 15YA average (RAIN 326 mm; +24%). The temperature (TEMP 1.6°C; +1.7°C) increased, but radiation (RADPAR 348 MJ/m^2;  -15%) decreased. More than 85% of the arable land was cropped (CALF was 88%), and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was good (0.88). Weather based projected potential biomass was above the 15YA (+9%).

At the national level, NDVI was below average before March, and then close to the 5YA in April. Crop condition in about 23.4% of the cropped area was above or close to the 5-year average, in agreement with the national VCIx map. According to the spatial distribution maps, although VCIx was satisfactory in most areas of the country (>0.8), there was an apparent drop in NDVI profiles in many areas in January.  Most likely, this artifact was caused by snow cover. The crop production index (CPI) was 1.15, which indicates a favorable prospect considering the sufficient rainfall during this period.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses for three agro-ecological zones (AEZs) are provided, including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus (Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev) had more rainfall (34%) and increased temperature (+1.8°C) than average, but radiation had decreased (-13%). The BIOMSS is projected to increase by 10%. Agronomic indicators showed satisfactory values: 84% for CALF and 0.87 for VCIx. CPI value was 1.12. The crop condition is good.

In Central Belarus, the regions of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev recorded higher rainfall (+18%), higher temperature (+1.7°C) and below average radiation (-16%). The BIOMSS is projected to increase by 9%. A high degree of cropped arable land (CALF at 90%) and a VCIx value of 0.87 with a CPI of 1.11 were observed. The overall situation was favorable for winter crops.

The Southern Belarus (southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions) experienced the same agro-climatic condition as the Central area. Higher rainfall (16%), higher temperature (+1.4°C) and lower radiation (-17%) were recorded. The BIOMSS is projected to increase by 7%. Favorable agronomic indicators (CALF 92%, VCIx 0.92) were observed. CPI value was 1.24.  The conditions for winter wheat were favorable.

Figure 3.10 Belarus’s crop condition, January 2023- April 2023.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f)Rainfall time series 

 (g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January 2023- April 2023.

Table 3.12 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January 2023- April 2023.