This bulletin summarizes the main growing periods for soybean, rice, and maize in the Center-South regions of Brazil. The harvest for these crops was almost completed by the end of April. The second season maize, known as "safrinha," which is mainly cultivated in the Centre-South, reached its peak growing stage in March and April, and the harvest is expected to begin in late May. Rice in the North and Northeast regions reached the peak of its growth in April. The sowing of maize in the Northeast and wheat in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul will start at the end of the monitoring period.
In Brazil, only 12% of cropland is irrigated, and agro-meteorological conditions play a crucial role in the growth of most crops. Brazil has experienced almost two years of continuous drier and warmer-than-usual weather since mid-2021. The country received an average rainfall of 505 mm, which is 49% below the 15-year average from January to April. The negative departure of the rainfall was the same as for the February Bulletin. Meanwhile, average air temperature for the whole of Brazil was 1.5°C higher, and radiation was 1% below 15YA. Significant below average rainfall in combination with the above average temperature resulted in a 26% reduction in potential biomass. Dry and warm weather also accelerated soil moisture loss and worsened drought conditions. Most of Brazil has suffered from severe water shortages, resulting in significant negative departure of BIOMSS except for the Parana and East Coast region. Among the top nine major agricultural producing states, only Parana received close to average rainfall (+2%). It also had average temperatures compared to the 15-year average. All other major states experienced significantly below-average rainfall ranging from 12% to 94% below average, along with higher temperatures. The unfavorable weather conditions with shortage of rainfall and high temperature resulted  in below-average biomass in all major agricultural producing states, except for Parana (+3%). As compared to the same period in 2022, only three major states, Ceara, Parana, and Santa Catarina, received more rainfall.
The prolonged precipitation deficit weather negatively affected crop growth, leading to an overall below average crop condition as reflected by the consistently below average vegetation greenness, tracking back to the start of the summer season in October 2022. Meanwhile, NDVI profiles show that the crop condition gradually recovered starting in mid-February and reached a close-to-average level by the end of April. Spatial distribution of NDVI departure from 5YA and NDVI departure profiles corresponding to the clusters illustrated the detailed spatial-temporal variation of the crop conditions. Average crop conditions were mostly distributed in the Parana River basin, while most other regions presented continuously below average conditions. Accordingly, the VCIx map also presented higher values in the Parana river basin, while other regions were normal except for the very south of Brazil,  where VCIx values were lowest, mainly due to the irregular rainfall. At the national level, VCIx was 0.93, the same as in the January to April 2022 period. CALF was at 5YA, indicating overall limited effects from the dry weather on the sowing of the crops.

Despite the slightly below-average crop conditions in Brazil caused by the dry and warm weather, the success of second maize production largely depended on irrigation practices. The average yield of second maize is expected to surpass that of 2022. In addition, the expansion of the cultivated area for second maize compared to 2022 also played a crucial role in mitigating the impact of the drought, resulting in increased production of second maize. The crop production index of Brazil is 1.14, which is slightly higher than that of 2022, which was 1.10. 

Regional analysis

Taking into account the variations in cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Brazil can be divided into eight distinct agro-ecological zones (AEZs). This bulletin focuses on six specific AEZs: Central Savanna (31), East coast (32), Mato Grosso zone (34), Nordeste (35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37). Across all AEZs, there was a notable deficiency in rainfall, ranging from -17% to -91% compared to the average, coupled with above-average temperatures ranging from +0.1°C to +3.7°C. The most significant temperature anomaly was observed in the Central Savanna zone, where temperatures were 3.7°C higher than the 15-year average . Photosynthetically Active Radiation (RADPAR) was generally close to the average, with a departure ranging from -4% to +3%. However, the unfavorable dry and hot weather conditions across all AEZs resulted in below-average biomass (-3% to -57%) compared to the 15-year average.
Among the AEZs, the Central Savanna (31), Nordeste (35), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37) were most severely affected by the drought. Central Savanna experienced the lowest rainfall levels during the monitoring period, receiving only 73 mm, which was 91% below the 15-year average. The significant water deficit led to well-below-average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values, particularly noticeable since February 2023. The Nordeste region also faced dry and hot weather conditions, receiving the second-lowest rainfall among the eight zones, totaling 191 mm. The substantial water deficit in January and February hindered crop development, resulting in consistently below-average crop conditions since February. However, rainfall recovered to near-average levels in March and April, potentially benefiting crop development until the maturity stage. The Southern subtropical rangelands exhibited below-average crop conditions with the lowest Crop Production Index (CPI) value (0.94) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) value (0.79) compared to other AEZs. NDVI profiles indicated below-average crop growth conditions throughout the monitoring period. However, thanks to above-average rainfall in early and late March, the negative NDVI anomaly compared to the five-year average has diminished since March, despite reaching the harvest stage for summer crops in the region.
Dry and hot weather conditions also prevailed in Mato Grosso and the Parana River Basin, the two leading AEZs for agriculture. The impacts were more complex in Mato Grosso as the monitoring period covered the growth and harvest of first maize and soybean, as well as the sowing and growth of second maize. The drought reduced the yields of first maize and soybean compared to the 2022 season but they still exceeded the five-year average. For second maize, the crop phenology was delayed due to significantly below-average rainfall. Nevertheless, irrigation practices maintained favorable soil moisture conditions, resulting in second maize yields surpassing those of 2022, with a CPI value of 1.17. Both CALF and VCIx exhibited normal values compared to the five-year averages.
Similarly, the Parana River Basin presented overall normal crop conditions compared to the five-year average, as indicated by the average NDVI values in the crop development graph. During the peak growing period of first-season crops, NDVI values surpassed those of 2022 from late January to mid-February, despite below-average rainfall. The soil moisture conditions were favorable, primarily due to irrigation practices, benefiting crops, particularly second maize and soybean. Throughout the monitoring period, CALF values were average, VCIx reached 0.94, and the CPI value was 1.15, significantly higher than 2022 (1.08).
The East coast AEZ exhibited a large negative biomass departure, with overall below-average crop conditions as reflected by the NDVI-based crop development profile. Agricultural lands along the coastal line displayed a significant above-average potential biomass, while inland areas showed substantial below-average biomass. The rainfall deficit in February and early March was more pronounced than in other periods during the monitoring period, resulting in a well-below-average NDVI since early March. Rainfall recovered thereafter, accelerating crop development. However, by the end of the monitoring period, crop conditions remained below average. Overall, the production outlook for this AEZ is forecasted to be below average, with a CPI value of 1.04, considerably lower than that of 2022, which was 1.11.
For more indicators and detailed information, it is recommended to visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.5 Brazil's crop condition, January - April 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure clusters and NDVI departure profiles corresponding to the clusters

(e) Potential biomass departure from 15YA          

(f) Meteorological drought measured by standard precipitation index

(g) Surface (0-5cm) soil moisture at 10th February, 2023

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast zone

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

Table 3.14  Brazil’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2023

Table 3.15 Brazil’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2023