The monitoring period for this report spans from January to April, coinciding with the short rainy season (Belg) in central and southeastern Ethiopia. During this period, the sowing of Meher (main season) maize began in the central and southeastern Oromia regions. Nationally, agroclimatic indicators indicate favorable soil moisture conditions, with rainfall (+21%), temperature (-0.3°C), and biomass (0%) within desirable ranges. Agronomic indicators also show a smooth sowing of maize, with a significant increase in CALF (+37%). Adequate rainfall in March and April allowed farmers to initiate land preparation for the main season crops. Moreover, the NDVI and maximum VCI value of 1.02 were considerably above average, suggesting favorable conditions. Late April data based on NDVI clusters revealed that only 2% of cropland had slightly below-average conditions, while the remaining land exhibited above-average conditions. Overall, prospects for the Meher season are favorable.

Regional analysis

This analysis focuses on five major cereal production regions: Central-northern maize-teff highlands (63), Great Rift region (65), South-eastern Mendebo highlands (71), South-western coffee-enset highlands (73), and Western mixed maize zone (74).

Agroclimatic conditions in the Central-northern maize-teff highlands (63), Great Rift region (65), and South-eastern Mendebo highlands (71) were similar, with cumulative precipitation levels above average (RAIN +41%, +28%, and +34%). Biomass also increased compared to the 15-year average (BIOMSS +8%, +7%, and +11%). The NDVI exhibited a favorable trend, and there was a substantial increase in cropped arable land fraction (CALF +63%, +70%, and +25%). VCIx values were 1.03, 1.09, and 0.97, indicating favorable conditions.

In the South-western coffee-enset highlands (73) and Western mixed maize zone (74), precipitation levels were close to the 15-year average (RAIN -8% and +5%). However, biomass estimates were below average (BIOMSS -12% and -4%). The cropped arable land fraction remained mostly unchanged, and crop production in these two regions was normal.

Figure 3.15 Ethiopia’s crop condition, January - April 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                  (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                     (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central-northern maize-teff highlands (left) Great Rift region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-eastern Mendebo highlands (left) and South-western coffee-enset highlands (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western mixed maize zone)

Table 3.21 Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – March 2023

Table 3.22 Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January – March 2023