This report covers the vegetative growth period of winter wheat, winter barley and rapeseed. According to the crop condition development graph, NDVI values were close to average from January to April. Temperature was above average (TEMP +0.6°C), rainfall and radiation were below average （RAIN -5%, RADPAR -7%). The combined impact of these agroclimatic factors resulted in increased biomass (BIOMSS +5%). The seasonal RAIN profile shows that rainfall was below average in February and above in March. The temperature was above or close to average for most of the period.

The national average VCIx was 0.88. CALF (99%) was unchanged compared to its five-year average. Crop production index was 1.09. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 39.4% of arable land experienced average crop conditions, mainly in the south of the United Kingdom.  (2) 30.7% of arable land experienced above-average crop conditions, mainly in the east of the United Kingdom. (3) 29.9% of arable land experienced average crop conditions in most of the monitoring period with a marked drop of crop conditions in the middle of January, middle of March and late April. Most likely, the large drops in NDVI can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images. Altogether, the conditions for wheat in the UK are assessed to be average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions can be distinguished: the Northern barley region （84）, Central sparse crop region （83） and Southern mixed wheat and barley region (85). The fractions of cropped arable land (CALF) in all subregions are average compared to the 5-year average.

The Northern barley region experienced below-average rainfall and radiation (RAIN -10%; RADPAR -2%), while temperatures were significantly above average (TEMP +0.5°C). Biomass was above average (BIOMSS +4%). NDVI was below or close to average according to the crop condition graph. The VCIx was 0.87. Crop production index was 1.04. Altogether, the output of wheat is expected to be near average. 

The Central sparse crop region is one of the major agricultural regions in terms of crop production. 

The rainfall and radiation were below average (RAIN -9%; RADPAR -9%), while temperature was above average (TEMP +0.7°C). This resulted in an above-average estimate for biomass（BIOMSS +5%). NDVI values were below or close to average. The VCIx was at 0.87. Crop production index was 1.08. Altogether, the conditions for wheat are expected to be near average. 

Southern mixed wheat and barley zone experienced above-average rainfall and temperature (RAIN +2%; TEMP +0.7°C). Radiation was below average (RADPAR -9%). The higher temperatures and rainfall resulted in biomass estimates that were above average (BIOMSS +6%). NDVI was below or close to average according to the crop condition graph in this reporting period. The VCIx was 0.88. Crop production index was 1.10. Altogether, the output of wheat is expected to be near average. 

Figure 3.17 United Kingdom’s crop condition, January - April 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Barley region (left) and Central sparse crop region (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley zone)

Table 3.25 United Kingdom's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2023

Table 3.26 United Kingdom's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, January - April 2023