During the monitoring period, the main rice was harvested and completed. The rainy season maize in Java and Sumatra was still in the growth phase between January and February, and the harvest started in March.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that temperature was close to the 15YA (TEMP +0.0°C), the precipitation was below the average (RAIN -5%), and the radiation was above the 15YA (RADPAR +3%).  This resulted in a potential biomass production increase (BIOMSS +1%).

According to the national NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below the 5YA during the monitoring period. However, this might be an artifact due to frequent cloud cover in the satellite images, which causes low NDVI values. Conditions had improved to close to the average in early April. NDVI clusters and profiles show that 69% of the cropland was significantly below the 5YA from January to March, and began to recover to average in April. Crop conditions for the 31% of cropland were close to average during the whole monitoring period, which was distributed in North Sumatra, Bengkulu, Java, North Sulawesi, and East Papua.

The area of cropped arable land (CALF 100%) in Indonesia was close to the 5YA and the VCIx value was 0.94. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in this country was 1.13, indicating above average conditions. Overall, crop conditions can be assessed as close to average or slightly above. 

Regional analysis

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90，  the main agricultural region in the country), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91), and West Papua (93), among which the first three are relevant for crop production. The numbers correspond to the labels on the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

According to the agroclimatic conditions of Java, radiation was above average (RADPAR +7%), but precipitation and temperature were below the 15YA (RAIN -3%, TEMP -0.2℃), the potential biomass production was close to the 15YA (BIOMSS +0%). The NDVI development graphs show that crop conditions were close to the 5YA in April, and other months were below the average. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Java was 1.12, crop production could be assessed as normal.

Precipitation was below the 15YA (RAIN, -6%), while temperature and radiation were slightly above the average in Kalimantan and Sulawesi (TEMP +0.2°C, RADPAR +4%). This resulted in an increase in the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +2%). According to the NDVI development graph,  crop conditions were below the 5YA except for the middle of April. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Kalimantan and Sulawesi was 1.15, and crop production in Kalimantan and Sulawesi  is anticipated to be above average.

In Sumatra, precipitation and temperature were below the average (RAIN -1%， TEMP -0.1°C), but radiation was above the 15YA (RADPAR +1%), which led to a small increase of the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +1%). As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were significantly below the 5YA. This can be partly attributed to the floods that occurred in this region in January and February 2023. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Sumatra was 1.14, and crop production in Sumatra Island could be expected to be above normal.

                                      Figure 3.19. Indonesia’s crop condition, January  2023 – April 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

          (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                (c) Maximum VCI

               (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                     (e) NDVI profiles

                          (f)Rainfall profiles                                                (g)Temperature profiles

(h)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java (left) and Kalimantan-Sulawesi (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sumatra)

Table 3.29 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January  2023 – April 2023

Table 3.30 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January  2023 – April 2023