Kenya has two rainy seasons. The long rains last from March to the end of May and the short rains last from the end of October to December. Maize is sown during both the long and short rains, while wheat is sown only during the long rains. This report covers the monitoring period from January to April 2023. The short rain maize got harvested and the long rain maize sowing has started, while the wheat sowing will start in May.

At the national level, precipitation was 24% below average at 337 mm. According to the national rainfall profiles, the 10-day cumulative rainfall was below the 15YA in almost all decades except in late March and late April. It was slightly warmer (TEMP +0.2°C) with RADPAR slightly above 15YA (+2%). Due to these conditions, the BIOMSS was 11% below average and the maximum VCI was 0.85.

The sowing and growth of short rainy season maize were affected by prolonged drought condions, which were prevalent during the entire growing season that had started in October.  January and February were the harvesting phase for short rainy season maize. The NDVI  values were below the 15YA, which indicates a significant reduction in yield. Based on NDVI clusters and corresponding NDVI departure profiles, western Kenya (blue area), which accounts for 47% of the country's cropland, had below average NDVI before March and recovered to above-average NDVI values in April. NDVI values in the dark green area of the eastern coastal region also were  well below average. This is consistent with the maximum VCI map, which shows a relatively low VCI of less than 0.5 (red area) in the eastern coastal region. In general, yield of the short rainy season maize yield was reduced by drought. Long rainy season maize was sown in March and April, when the precipition had improved to close to average levels. The recovered rainfall will be beneficial for the sowing and early development of long rainy season maize.

Regional analysis 

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for kenya: the Eastern coastal region (113), the Highland agriculture zone (114) and Northern region (115) and the Southwest region (116).

In the Eastern coastal region, the rainfall was above average (+37%). Biomass did not change, while temperatures (+0.2°C) and RADPAR (+3%) were moderately above average. However, as precipitation remained below 15YA in February and March, sowing of long rain maize sowing was affected. And the CALF decreased by 18% to 78%. The Crop Production Index was 0.66 and the maximum VCIx value was 0.63. The poorer CPI and VCIx may have been caused by the short rainy season maize harvest. Overall, crop conditions in the coastal areas were below average for both livestock and crop production, but the above average rainfall in April will be beneficial for long rain season maize development.

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 339 mm of rain, which was below the 15YA (-28%). Biomass decreased significantly (-13%) due to low precipitation. Temperature was near the 15YA (+0.3 °C), while RADPAR was slightly above average (+2%). Maximum VCI was 0.82. And the NDVI was below the 5YA before March. This means that the sowing of long rain maize was affected. Overall, crop growth was constrained by drought conditions, apart from April, when above rainfall occurred, improving crop development.

In the Northern region, precipitation was slightly above average at 344 mm (+8%). The 1% increase in BIOMSS was due to increased precipitation. But the maximum VCIx was only at 0.70. The significantly lower NDVI from January to March explains the poor output from short rain maize. Since late March, rainfall recovered to above average levels, resulting in high NDVI values compared with 5YA. In addition, CALF increased (+6%) to 86%. In general, perspectives for long rain season maize are godd as the region has seen an increase in rainfall, biomass, and CALF.

The Southwest region includes the areas of Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru and Embu. It had the largest negative deviation in RAIN (-63%). This resulted in a BIOMSS reduction by 30%. However, NDVI values were close to the 5YA except for February and March. The gradual increase in NDVI in April is signalling improved conditions for long rain maize. In addition, CALF was unchanged (100%). VCIx value remained at a high level (0.91). This indicates a return to normal vegetation conditions, thanks to the increased rainfall in March and April. All in all, the parameters indicate close to average conditions for this area.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, January-April 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall       (g) Time series temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

(j) RAIN condition development graph based on NDVI, the eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(k) RAIN condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.40 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2023

Table 3.41 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, January-April 2023