This reporting period covers the main growing stage of wheat, while maize planting started in February. Precipitation had been 51% below the 15YA during the previous monitoring period. The drought conditions continued during this monitoring period, as the CropWatch agro-climatic indicators show that the recorded rainfall was 114 mm, 48% below the 15-year average (15YA). The rainfall index graph shows that the rainfall was less than the 15YA except for in mid-to-late- February. The average temperature was only 0.7°C higher the 15YA. The temperature index graph shows that the temperature fluctuated around 15YA. RADPAR was higher than the 15YA by 2.1%, while BIOMSS was lower than the 15YA by 23%. The nationwide NDVI crop development graph shows that the crop conditions were far below the 5-year average (5YA) due to severe drought conditions. The NDVI profile map indicates that about 15.9% of cultivated areas fluctuated around the 5YA, and 84.1% were below the 5YA. The VCIx was at 0.61, and the CALF was below the 5YA by 16%. Conditions for wheat production were highly unfavorable. The nationwide crop production index (CPI) was at 0.86 implying below normal crop production situation.

Regional Analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Morocco is subdivided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ). Only three are relevant for crop production: Sub-humid northern highlands (125), including the central Centre-Nord Region and northern Centre-Sud, Warm semiarid zone (126) covering the regions of North-Oriental and the broad Tensift Region, and Warm sub-humid zone (127) of the Nord-Ouest Region. The agroclimatic indicators show a decrease in rainfall at -51% for the Sub-humid northern highlands, -42% for the Warm semi-arid zone, and -51% for the Warm sub-humid zone, while the temperature was above 15YA by 0.7°C, 0.6°C, and 0.6°C in the Sub-humid northern highlands, the Warm semi-arid zone, and the Warm sub-humid zone, respectively. RADPAR was higher than the 15YA by 5%, 1%, and 3% while BIOMSS was below the 15YA by 28%, 21%, and 28% in the Sub-humid northern highlands, the Warm semi-arid zone, and the Warm sub-humid zone, respectively, respectively. The NDVI-based crop condition development graphs show similar conditions for the three zones following the national crop development NDVI graph. The VCIx was 0.61, 0.52, and 0.74, and the CALF was below the 5YA by 22%, 28%, and 5% in the Sub-humid northern highlands, the Warm semi-arid zone, and the Warm sub-humid zone, respectively, implying poor prospects for cereal production. The CPI was at 0.79, 0.79, and 0.98 in the Sub-humid northern highlands, the Warm semi-arid zone, and the Warm sub-humid zone, respectively, implying a below-normal crop production situation. 

Figure 3.44 Morocco's crop condition, January-April 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c). Maximum VCI

(d). Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(e). NDVI profiles

(f). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid northern highlands) (g). Warm semiarid zones) 

(h) . Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Warm subhumid zones

(i). Time series profile of rainfall  (j).Time series profile of temperature

Table 3.45 Morocco's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, January-April 2023

Table 3.46 Morocco's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, January-April 2023