This report covers the production of irrigated wheat, typically sown in November and December, as well as of irrigated winter maize, sown roughly one month earlier. Maize and wheat were at the harvesting stage in March and April, respectively. Rice and soybean sowing began in April.

Agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN decreased by 24%, TEMP increased by 0.4°C, RADPAR was at the average level and BIOMSS decreased by 11%. The CALF decreased by 4%. According to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, overall crop growth in Mexico was slightly below average.

Based on the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, it can be observed that 50% of the total cropped areas had below-average crop condition throughout the monitoring period, primarily concentrated in the central part of Mexico, specifically in Veracruz. Approximately 32.7% of the total cropped areas exhibited average crop conditions, with notable concentrations in Chihuahua, Chiapas, and Tlaxcala. These regions experienced moderate crop growth, indicating that the agro-climatic conditions were more favorable compared to the central part of Mexico. Only 6.3% of the total cropped areas showed above-average crop conditions, predominantly found in Tamaulipas. This suggests that crops in these areas have benefited from relatively better agro-climatic conditions, resulting in improved growth and productivity. Finally, in 10.9% of the areas, the crop condition gradually improved towards the end of the monitoring period.

In general, the agricultural situation in Mexico is slightly below average due to insufficient precipitation in January. Insufficient precipitation can lead to water stress and reduced crop yields.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions provide more details for the production situation in Mexico.

The Arid and semi-arid region, located in northern and central Mexico, accounts for about half of planted areas in the country. The agro-climatic condition indicate a 13% decrease in RAIN, with TEMP remaining near the average and a 4% decrease in RADPAR. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions in this region were close to the average. CALF decreased by 10% compared with the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.67.

The region of Humid tropics with summer rainfall is located in southeastern Mexico. RAIN was significantly decreased by 22%, TEMP was 0.7°C warmer, RADPAR increased by 3% and BIOMSS decreased by 9%. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph from January to April, the NDVI values were slightly below but close to the average level. CALF was 99%. The higher CALF values contributed to a VCIx of 0.89.

The Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains is situated in central Mexico. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below the average level. RAIN experienced a significant decrease of 48%, while TEMP increased by 0.7°C. RADPAR remained unchanged compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS decreased by 26% and CALF was recorded at 44%. The VCIx was 0.68.

The region called Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains is located in southern Mexico. During the monitoring period, crop conditions were slightly lower than the average in the four months, as shown by the NDVI time profiles. The agro-climatic conditions revealed a decrease in RAIN (-24%), a slight increase in TEMP (+0.5°C) and no change in RADPAR. CALF was 79%, and the VCIx for the region was 0.79.

Figure 3.5 Mexico’s crop condition, January - April 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

Table 3.2 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2023

Table 3.3 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2023