National analysis

The monitoring period from January to April focuses on tracking the growth stages of key crops, such as maize and rice, in the central and northern regions of the country. In contrast, both crops have already been fully harvested in the southern region during this period. Wheat sowing commenced in late January, and its harvesting is projected to begin in late May and continues until late June. During this period, which aligns with the rainy and cyclone season across the country, the agroclimatic indicators show an increase in the total amount of rainfall (+16), while both temperature and photosynthetic active radiation experienced decreases of 0.2ºC and 2% respectively. These combined factors led to a 3% increase in total biomass production. However, despite these favorable agroclimatic indicators, the NDVI  based crop condition development graph indicates below-average conditions for most of the monitoring period, particularly from February to early April. However, some of the negative departures can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images. The severe floods that occurred in February, primarily affected the southern region, including Maputo city and the districts of Boane, Matola, Namaacha, and Magude in the Maputo province. These regions exhibited low values of the maximum vegetation index. Another contributing factor to the poor crop conditions during this period was Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which struck the country, impacting the provinces of Zambezia, Nampula, Sofala, and Niassa in February. This timing coincided with the peak growth period of most crops. The Spatial NDVI patterns and the NDVI profiles reveal that approximately 49.3% of crop conditions were below the average of the past five years, with a notable emphasis on the provinces of Zambezia, Tete, Nampula, Sofala, and Maputo. Despite the cropped arable land fraction being consistent with the average of the past five years, and a recorded maximum VCIx of 0.95, the expected outputs for the current ongoing cropping season are unfavorable. Although the crop production index in the country stands at 1.17, the anticipated yields during this period are not promising, especially in the regions affected by climate hazards.

Regional analysis

Based on the national cropping system, topography, and climate, CropWatch has subdivided Mozambique into five agroecological zones (AEZs) including the Buzi basin (140), Northern High-altitude areas (141), Low Zambezi River basin (142), Northern coast (143), and the Southern region (144).

Att the regional level, the agroclimatic indicators reveal increases in rainfall in all the agroecological zones, except for the Buzi basin (RAIN -5). The most significant increase in rainfall was recorded in the southern region (RAIN +68%), while the remaining regions experienced rainfall increases of 13% on the Northern coast, 12% in the Low Zambezia River basin, and 1% in the Northern-high altitude areas. Temperature decreased by 0.3ºC in the Northern-high altitude areas and the Low Zambezia River basin, 0.2ºC in the Northern coast, and 0.1ºC in the southern region. In the Buzi basin, the temperature increased by 0.2ºC. Except for the Buzi basin and the southern region, radiation decreased in all remaining zones, with the highest decrease of 4% recorded in the Northern-high altitude areas. The total biomass production decreased by 2% in the Buzi basin, while the remaining regions experienced increases, with the highest being recorded in the southern region (BIOMSS +8%).

The regional crop condition development graphs indicate that, except for the southern region, all other regions experienced unfavorable crop conditions throughout the monitoring period. Despite the significant increases in rainfall and the occurrence of floods in Maputo city and the Maputo province, the crop conditions in the southern region were favorable, likely influenced by the favorable conditions recorded in other provinces such as Inhambane and Gaza. With CALF around the average in all the agroecological zones, the maximum VCIx recorded during the monitoring period varied from 0.92 to 0.97, and the CPI varied from 1.12 to 1.17.

Figure 3.32. Mozambique's crop condition, January-April 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                        (e) NDVI profiles

图.X (g) National time-series temperature profiles

(f) National time-series rainfall profiles                                                                (g) National time-series temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Buzi basin (left), and Northern high-altitude areas (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin (left), and Northern coast region (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Southern region

Table 3.55. Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, January-April 2023

Table 3.56. Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, January-April 2023

Table 3.56. Mozambique’s crop production index, January-April 2023