This report covers crop conditions for maize, wheat, and soybean  in Nigeria between the months of January to April 2023. In this period, farmers completed the harvest of last year's crops and started with the land preparation for the new crops. Normally, the rains are expected to start fully by late March into early April. However, there was a late onset of rainfall across the country. Rainfall recorded during this period was below average (RAIN -41%). Rainfall in almost all the tendays was below average.Solar radiation did not deviate from the average (RADPAR 0%), but the temperature decreased (TEMP -0.5ºC). The temperatures fluctuated around the long-term trend. The combination of these indicators led to a decrease in potential biomass (BIOMSS -9%).

According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were fluctuating around the 5-year average for most of the monitoring period. According to the NDVI departure clustering map, 51.4% of the cropland was below average throughout the monitoring period, 37.2% predominantly in the Sahel and Sudan Savannah was slightly above average,  while the coastal areas in sourthern of the area were unstable, but still above the average. These fluctuations are most likely artifacts, caused by cloud cover in the satellite images. The dry season saw a decline in the cropped arable land (CALF -2%), but with a favorable maximum VCI value of around 0.83. The crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.10. All in all, conditions were near average during this dry period, but still below the last year. However, the rainy season started with a delay, which impacts the land preparation and sowing of the crops.

Regional Analysis

The analysis focuses on nine(9) agro-ecological zones in the country transiting from North to South, i.e., Sahel Savannah(153), Sudan Savannah(154), Guinea Savannah(148), Derived Savannah(146), Jos Plateau(149), Mountain Forest(152), Lowland Rainforest(150), Freshwater Swamp Forest(147) and Mangrove Forest(151).

The Sahel Savanah is found in the north-eastern part of the country, followed by the Sudan Savanah, which stretches across the entire northern region. The Guinea savannah is the largest, which is a transition between the Sudan Savanah and the Derived Savanah, covering a large portion of the central part of the country. The Derived Savanah, Fresh Water Swamp, Rain Forest and Mangrove Forest are all located in the southern part of the country. While the Jos Plateau and the Mountain Forest are also located in the central part of the country.

In the Sahel Savanah zone, the agro-climatic indicators showed unfavorable crop conditions.  Rainfall (RAIN -93%) and the average temperature were below average (TEMP -1.0°C), radiation also decreased (RADPAR -1%), leading to  decrease in potential biomass (BIOMSS -27%).  There was almost no rainfall during this period, so the cropping activities was few.

In the Sudan Savannah, the region adopts similar agricultural practices as the Sahel Savanah zone. The agro-climatic condition also showed a drastic decline in rainfall (RAIN -78%). The temperature and radiation were also below average (TEMP -0.7°C, RADPAR -1%). Potential biomass was close to average (BIOMSS -1%) and CALF increased by 49%.  Due to the extreme drought, there was almost not any  cropping activities during this period.

The Guinea Savannah zone also recorded below average rainfall and temperature (RAIN -73%, TEMP -0.5°C), while radiation did not deviate from average (RADPAR 0%), potential biomass also decreased (BIOMSS -12%). The CALF was lower than average by -6% and the maximum VCI was 0.77. The NDVI development graph also shows that crop conditions in the area were on average for the most part of the period with a crop production index (CPI 1.21) above normal.

The Mountain Forest which covers a very small portion in the central part of the country, recorded  below average rainfall and temperature of (RAIN -75%, TEMP -0.8°C), while radiation increased to (RADPAR 1%), and biomass dropped down to (BIOMSS -24%). The CALF was -1% and the maximum VCI was 0.84.

The Jos Plateau, also located in the central region recorded below average rainfall (RAIN -80%), temperature (TEMP -0.5°C), while the radiation was average (RADPAR 0%) and potential biomass was below average (BIOMSS -14%). The CALF was reduced by -7% and the maximum VCI was 0.72. The crop conditions were also average for the most part of the period with crop production index being  slightly below normal (CPI 0.94).

The Derived Savanah region also recorded a decreased rainfall and temperature (RAIN -54%, TEMP -0.2°C), with radiation unchanged (RADPAR 0%) and potential biomass was below average (BIOMSS of -14%). CALF was -3% and the maximum VCI was at 0.90, while the crop production index (CPI 1.03) was near normal. 

The Lowland Rain Forest also recorded a decrease in rainfall at (RAIN -31%), and temperature was below average (TEMP -0.2°C). The radiation was unchanged (RADPAR 0%) and the biomass was lower (BIOMSS -12%). The CALF was unchanged and the maximum VCI was 0.97. The crop production index (CPI 1.16) was above normal, while the NDVI crop conditions were  below average.

The Fresh Water Swamp Forest is located in the southern region of the country covering a small area. Rainfall in this area was below average (RAIN -22%). Temperatures were slightly lower as well (TEMP -1°C), while radiation fell by -1%, and biomass also dropped (BIOMSS -10%). The CALF was below average by -1% and the maximum VCI was 0.86. The crop conditions in this flooded region were fluctuating. The flood caused by the phased heavy rainfall from April impacted the crop condition, which was below the average.

The Mangroove Forest, also located in the southern region of the country, recorded below average rainfall (RAIN -21%), the temperature was lower (TEMP -0.3°C) and radiation was unchanged (RADPAR 0%) which resulted in a  decrease in biomass (BIOMSS -10%). The CALF was 1% above average, and the maximum VCI was 0.94.

 Figures 3.34 Nigeria's crop condition, January-April 2023

                                                            (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                      (c)Maximum VCI

                    (d) Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5YA and NDVI profiles                          (e)NDVI profiles

                                           (f) Time series temperature profile                                         (g) Time series rainfall profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Sahel savannah, Right:Sudan Savannah)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Guinea savannah, Right:Derived Savannah)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Jos Plateau, Right:Mountain Forest)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Low Land Rainforest, Right:Mangroove Forest)

  (l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI: Freshwater Swamp

Table 3.60 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA. January-April 2023

Table 3.61 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA. January-April 2023