The monitoring period encompasses the majority of the winter wheat cycle, starting from the vegetative stage and extending up to harvest. It also encompasses field preparation and maize sowing. Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators indicated favorable crop conditions between January and April as a whole. 

Rainfall is not the major factor influencing crop production in Pakistan, primarily due to the high proportion of irrigated cropland, which accounts for 80% of the total. In comparison to the average from the past 15 years (15YA), the recent rainfall was 11% below average, while the photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) was 2% below average. However, the air temperature (TEMP) during this period was above average, with an increase of 0.7°C. The combined effect of these agro-climatic indicators resulted in an above-average biomass (BIOMSS) production by 2%. At the national level, the rainfall during the period from mid-February to mid-March remained consistently below average. TEMP during the same period reached or exceeded the maximum values observed in the past 15 years. The combination of drier and warmer weather conditions led to below-average development of NDVI. However, TEMP has dropped below the average level and significantly lower than the extreme high temperatures of last year starting in mid March, it caused a delay in senescence, which in turned helped sustain relatively high grain yields. 

The spatial distribution of NDVI patterns and profiles revealed that 46.9% of the cropped areas were below average, particularly in the Northern Highlands, most parts of Punjab, and Sindh from late January to early April. Despite experiencing relatively warm weather in early March, conditions for high grain yields were rather favorable for Punjab, the most important wheat production region of Pakistan. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) slightly decreased by 2%. Overall, crop conditions were average and normal wheat production levels can be expected, and the production is better than last year. 

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch divides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Lower Indus river basin in South Punjab and Sindh(155)，the Northern Highlands(156) and the Northern Punjab(157).

In the Lower Indus River basin in South Punjab and Sindh, RAIN was above average by 45% and TEMP was above by 0.2°C, while RADPAR was below average by 2%. The estimated BIOMSS departure was +7%. Crop conditions based on NDVI were below average from late January to early March, indicating unfavorable conditions, but improved to above average during the subsequent critical growth period. It was aided by adequate rainfall. The CALF of 65% was below average by 2%. Overall, the prospects were satisfactory. 

RAIN (-19%) and RADPAR (-2%) of Northern Highlands were both below average, TEMP was above average by 1.2°C. The region experienced warmer and drier weather, and the estimated BIOMSS departure was -3%. The NDVI development graph shows below-average crop conditions except for early January and late April, especially in the north. This region had the lowest CALF of 48% among the three AEZs. It was below the 5YA by 4%. Crop conditions were below average. 

Northern Punjab is the main agricultural region in Pakistan. It recorded more rainfall than usual (RAIN +16%).  TEMP (+0.1°C)  was slightly above average and RADPAR (-3%) was below average. The combination of these factors resulted in above-average estimates of BIOMSS by 7% compared to the recent fifteen-year average. The NDVI development graph shows above average crop conditions in January and late March to April.  The region had a CALF of 86%, which was slightly below the 5YA by 1%. Favorable crop conditions during the critical grain filling period caused an increase in wheat production as compared to last year. 

Figure 3.34 Pakistan's crop conditions, January-April 2023

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile

c) RAIN profile                                                      d) TEMP profile

e) Maximum VCI

f)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       g) NDVI profile

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind)

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highlands (left) Northern Punjab (right))

Table 3.61 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, January - April 2023

Table 3.62 Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, January - April 2023