Winter wheat, barley and rye are the main crops that were grown in Poland during this monitoring period. The planting of summer crops started in April.  Compared to the average of the last 15 years, RAIN was 19% higher, TEMP was 1.0°C higher, and RADPAR was 14% lower. The potential biomass was 5% above average. The low values of NDVI in January can be attributed to snow or cloud cover in the satellite images. Sufficient precipitation and warmer-than-usual temperatures helped NDVI reach close to the 5-year average level in late February and surpass it in April. VCIx at the national scale was 0.91. Areas with a VCI below 0.8 were mainly distributed in the northwest, east and southeast regions. CALF reached 99%, which was 1% higher than the average of the last 5 years, and CPI was 1.16, indicating a favorable crop growth conditions.

In general, benefiting from above average precipitation and temperatures, crop growth conditions were favorable and above average yield can be expected for the winter crops.

Regional analysis

Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below (shown by Figure (c)  Maximum VCI). They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (163, the northern half of west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (162, Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic Sea), the Central rye and potatoes area (161, Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (164) from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders. The listed administrative units correspond to the Voivodeships.

Precipitation and average temperature in the Northern oats and potatoes areas were above the average of the last 15 years (RAIN, +18%; TEMP, +1.3°C), RADPAR was 19% lower. These conditions resulted in a  6% increase in potential biomass. NDVI recovered to the 5-year average in late February, but fell slightly below average again in early March and early April, then rising to the 5-year maximum in late April. CALF was 98%, which was 1% above the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.91, and CPI was 1.18, indicating good crop growth in this subregion.

Compared to 15-year average, RAIN and TEMP in the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area were 21% and 1.1°C higher, respectively, while RADPAR was 19% lower. BIOMSS increated by 6%. NDVI returned to the average for the same period in late February, but was significantly lower in early March, then slowly returned to the average again, and rose to 5-year maximum level in late April. CALF in this region reached 98%, which was 1% higher than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.91 and CPI was 1.16, indicating that the crop growth conditions in this region were favorable and the yield was well expected.

In the Central rye and potatoes area, rainfall was 19% above the 15-year average, TEMP was 1.1°C higher, RADPAR was 15% lower, and potential biomass was 6% higher. NDVI recovered to the 5-year average in late February and even reached the 5-year maximum level in April. CALF was 99%, close to the 5-year average. VCIx reached 0.91 and CPI was 1.11, indicating good crop growth in this region.

Precipitation in the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area was 19% above the average of the last 15 years,TEMP was 0.8°C higher, RADPAR was 10% lower, and potential biomass was 4% higher. NDVI recovered to the level of the previous year in late February, approached the 5-year average in March, rose above the 5-year maximum in early April, and was close to the 5-year average in late April. CALF in this subregion reached 99%, which was 1% higher than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.89, and CPI was 1.17. The crop conditions in this subregion were favorable.

Figure 3.37 Poland's crop condition, January – April 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Northern oats and potatoes area (left) and Northern-central wheat and sugar beet area (right).

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Central rye and potatoes area (left) and Southern wheat and sugar beet area (right)

(h) Rainfall index                                                            (i) Temperature Index

Table 3.66 Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2023

Table 3.67 Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2023

Region