In the Russian Federation, the snow starts to melt between February to May, depending on the region. Accordingly, the time of spring green-up and sowing of the summer crops varies from region to region as well. 

At the national level, NDVI was mainly close to the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. Precipitation in January as well as at the beginning of February and April was mainly below the 15-year average and the level of the previous year, while in March and at the end of April it was mainly above both those levels. The air temperature mainly remained above the 15-year average values. RADPAR was by 5 % below the 15-year average. Biomass exceeded the 15-year average by 10 %. CPI was 1.28.

Most major regions of winter crop production showed positive NDVI departures since March with VCIx varying from below 0.5 to above 1. Winter crop yields are expected to be close to the level of the previous year or slightly above it. However, the agroclimatic conditions of the rest of the growing period are important and may still affect the yield of winter crops.

Regional analysis

Precipitation in Southern Caucasus (176) was by 6% below the 15-year average. Temperatures were 0.5°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was by 2% below the 15-year average. Biomass was equal to the 15-year average.  VCIx was 0.85. The cropped area was equal to the 5-year average. CPI was 1.12. NDVI was below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year until the end of March, when it reached average levels. As the general situation was close to the average, we expect winter crop yields to be close to the level of the 5-year average.

In North Caucasus (174) atmospheric precipitation and temperatures were above the 15-year average by 3% and by 1.3°C respectively. RADPAR was 10% below the 15-year average. Biomass was by 9% above the 15-year average. VCIx was 0.89. The cropped area was by 15% above the 5-year average. CPI was 1.24. NDVI was below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year until the beginning of March when it reached average levels due to favorable temperature and precipitation. In April, NDVI increased significantly, exceeding the 5-year maximum. As agroclimatic conditions for winter crops in this region were favorable, we can expect winter crop yields to be higher than the 5-year average and close to the 5-year maximum.

In Central Russia (169) atmospheric precipitation and air temperatures were above the 15-year average by 5% and by 1.8°C respectively. RADPAR was by 9% below the 15-year average. Biomass was 13% above the 15-year average. VCIx was 0.99. The cropped area was 1% above the 5-year average. CPI was 1.23. NDVI was mostly at the level of the previous year until the middle of March when it exceeded the 5-year average. Generally, agroclimatic conditions were favorable for winter crops, so we expect winter crop yields to be at the level of the 5-year average or above it.

In Central Black soils region (170), the amount of precipitation and air temperature were above the 15-year average by 2% and by 1.6°C respectively. RADPAR was by 12% below the 15-year average. Biomass was 11% above the 15-year average. VCIx was 0.84. The cropped area was 10% below the 5-year average. CPI was 0.97. NDVI was close to the level of the previous year until March when it exceeded the 5-year average. It subsequently dropped back to average levels. As agroclimatic conditions were generally favorable, we expect winter crop yields to be at the level of the 5-year average.

In Middle Volga (173) precipitation was 13% below the 15-year average. Air temperatures were 2.4°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was 5% below the 15-year average. Biomass was 21% above the 15-year average. VCIx was 0.83. The cropped area was 14% below the 5-year average. CPI was 1.12. NDVI stayed mostly at the previous year's level and the 5-year average except in the middle of March when it exceeded the 5-year maximum. We expect winter crop yields to be close to the level of the previous year.

In Ural and western Volga (178) atmospheric precipitation was by 22% below the 15-year average. Temperatures, RADPAR and biomass were above the 15-year average by 2.5°C, 2% and 16%, respectively. VCIx was 0.63. The cropped area was 79% below the 5-year average. However, CALF was only 3%, since winter crop production is not important in this region.  CPI was 0.45. NDVI stayed close to the 5-year average and the previous year's level except at the end of April when it dropped below average. Due to the decrease in cropped area and the lack of precipitation, we expect winter crop yields to be below the 5-year average. However, winter crop production is irrelevant in this region.

In Eastern Siberia (171), atmospheric precipitation and temperatures were above the 15-year average by 5% and 1.3°C respectively. RADPAR was by 3% below the 15-year average. Biomass was 10% above the 15-year average. VCIx was 0.74. The cropped area was 23% below the 5-year average. CPI was 0.32. NDVI was at the level of the previous year till March when it reached the 5-year average. The decrease in cropped area can result in lower winter crop production. However, as the area of winter crops in this region is insignificant, it will not affect the production of winter crops in the Russian Federation.

In Middle Siberia (172), precipitation and temperature were above the 15-year average by 25% and 0.9°C respectively. RADPAR was close to the 15-year average. Biomass was 4% below the 15-year average. VCIx was 0.62. The cropped area was 48% below the 5-year average. CPI was 0.67. NDVI was mostly below the 5-year average and the previous year's level. As a result, winter crop production may decrease. But as the area of winter crops in this region is insignificant, the decrease in winter crop production will have little effect on the production of winter crops in the Russian Federation.

In Western Siberia (179),  precipitation, temperature, RADPAR and biomass were above the 15-year average by 8%, 2.1°C, 1% and 3%, respectively. VCIx was 0.57. The cropped area was 93% below 5-year average. CPI was 0.40. Until March, NDVI was at the 5-year average and the previous year's level. It was subsequently below average.  However, as the area of winter crops in this region is insignificant, it will not affect the production of winter crops in the Russian Federation.

Figure 1 Russia’s crop condition. January-April 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  VCIx

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Russia and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central black soils area)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)               Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(k) Rainfall index

(l)               Temperature index

Table 3.61 Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2023

Table 3.62 Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2023