The main crop in Ukraine being monitored for this period (Januray to April, 2023) is winter wheat.

The Russia - Ukraine war has entered its second year. It has contributed to acute global food and nutrition insecurity. In this monitoring period, the overall situation of agrocliamtic indicators showed generally favorable conditions for crop development in Ukraine. Rainfall (264 mm, +9%) was sufficient and temperature (2.8 ℃, +1.3 ℃) was warmer as compared to 15YA level. Solar radiation (442 MJ/m², - 16%) was significantly lower than usual. Based on the above agroclimatic situation, Cropwatch predicted the potential crop biomass would reach 451 gDM/m² at the national level, which was 5% higher than 5YA. For agronomic aspects, about 82% (CALF=0.82) of cropland was cropped in this season, which was 7% higher than 5YA. Meanwhile, the maximum VCI reached a favorable value of 0.86, and cropland in the southern area even reached an average of 0.9. The national crop production Index also reached 1.11, which suggested favorable crop conditions in this season.

In line with agroclimatic and agronomic conditions, the remote sensing based NDVI crop condition development graph confirmed the favorable conditions. NDVI was generally higher than 5YA in this period, exceeding the 5 year maximum in late April. Spatial distribution of NDVI showed NDVI in about 72.8% of the cropped area was close to or higher than 5YA in this period. The lower values were concentrated around the frontline near Kherson and Zaporizhia. In summary, favorable weather conditions caused good prospects for the production of winter cereals.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area (195) with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Eastern Carpathian hills (196) with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts; Northern wheat area (197) with Rivne and Southern wheat and maize area (198) with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

During this monitoring period, all four AEZs shared generally similar patterns in agroclimatic and agronomic conditions, as well as crop development curves. Rainfall was 8 to 18% higher than  the 15YA in the  Southern wheat and maize area / Northern wheat area to Eastern Carpathian hills. Temperatures were warmer by 1.1 ℃ (Eastern Carpathian hills) to 1.4 ℃ (Southern wheat and maize area), while radiation significantly decreased by 9% (Eastern Carpathian hills) to 20% (Central wheat area). Similar to the national level, potential biomass in all four AEZs was estimated at 5 to 6% above the 5YA. Cropped area (CALF) in this season was up to 14% above average, and VCIx values were around 0.81 to 0.9. In addition, the AEZs had a crop production index ranging from 1.01 to 1.23, which suggested a better agricultural production situation in the current monitoring period. NDVI based crop condition development also presented a favorable situation, NDVI values of all AEZs were above 5YA, even higher than the 5 year maximum in late April. All in all, current crop conditions indicated good prospects for winter wheat.

Figure 3.43 Ukraine's crop condition, January – April 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

Table 3.78 Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  January – April 2023

Table 3.79 Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2023