The monitoring period from January to April 2023 covers the main growth stages of winter wheat and the planting of maize in Uzbekistan. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, the radiation (RADPAR) and temperature (TEMP) were slightly above average (+6% and 0.6°C), while rainfall (RAIN) was below average (-5%) compared to the 15-year average (15YA). The precipitation was significantly below the 15YA, except for the beginning of January, February and beginning of April. The temperature in January was below the 15YA, but was close to or higher than the 15YA in the following months, especially in March. The biomass accumulation (BIOMSS) decreased by 18% compared to the 15YA. At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicates that besides the beginning of February (slightly above the 5YA), the crop conditions were below the five-year average in this monitoring period, especially for late January and late April. However, the drop in late January most likely can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images or snow on the ground.

The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.71. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 38%) decreased by 10% compared to its five-year average. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 52.6% of arable land (light green and blue) showed unfavorable conditions in this monitoring period, mainly in the west and south of the country. (2) 11.9% of arable land (dark green), mainly in the central area of the Eastern hilly cereals, had much better crop conditions than average in this monitoring period, except in late January. (3) 24.2% of arable land (orange) had unfavorable conditions in late January and late April, while better crop conditions than average in February and March. (4) 11.3% of arable land (red) had unfavorable conditions in January, better conditions than average in February and March and returned to the average level in April.  Prospects for the production of winter cereals are fair.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZ) can be distinguished for Uzbekistan: Central region with sparse crops (210), Eastern hilly cereals zone (211), and Aral Sea cotton zone (212).

In the Central region with sparse crops, the NDVI development graph shows that the crop conditions were generally below average, except for the beginning of April. RAIN was below average (-28%), while RADPAR and TEMP were slightly above average (+7% and +1.4°C). The VCIx was 0.61 and BIOMSS decreased by 22% compared to the 15YA. The agro-climatic conditions of this region were unfavorable.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, RAIN was below average (-23%), while RADPAR and TEMP were slightly above average (+6% and +0.5°C). The CALF was 49%. It had decreased by 10% compared to the 5YA and the VCIx index was 0.72. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph shows a similar pattern as the national average state. The NDVI values were lower than 0.1 at the end of January, probably due to the cloud or snow and the crop conditions were below the five-year average in this monitoring period, especially in late April. The BIOMSS decreased by 17%. The prospects for winter wheat are unfavorable.

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, RAIN was below average (-46%), while RADPAR and TEMP were slightly above average (+5% and +1.4°C). These factors resulted in a decrease in BIOMSS (-25%). The CALF(0%) decreased by 61% compared to the 5YA and the maximum VCI index was 0.67. The agro-climatic conditions of this region were unfavorable.

Figure 3.5 Uzbekistan’s crop condition, January - April 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

Table 3.2 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2023

Table 3.3 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2023