The report covers the period from January to April as part of the rainfed crop production in Zambia, dominated by major cereal crops (maize, sorghum, and millet), legumes, and pulses. These crops are planted from mid-November to early January, depending on the agro-ecological region. 

Based on the CropWatch agronomic indicators at the national level, a nationwide decrease in rainfall (860 mm, -14%) was observed while the temperature was unchanged (20.8ºC, +0%). There was an increase in radiation potential (1184 MJ/m2, +2%) and a decrease in potential biomass production (1189 gDM/m2, -5%) while CALF was 100%. The reduction in biomass production can be attributed to decreased rainfall and flooding between January and February. The NDVI profile indicated below 5-year average conditions from January to April, while the low NDVI of late January may be attributed to the flooding experienced in most parts of the country. However, the VCIx was 0.94 varying from 0.92 to 0.95, with the lowest VCIx experienced in the Western Semi-arid plain 228 (0.92) and highest in the Northern High rainfall zone 226 (0.95).

Total cereal production was estimated at a below‑average level, reflecting the impact of widespread seasonal rainfall deficits and incidences of flooding of some cultivated fields.

Regional Analysis

Zambia has 4 distinctive agro-ecological zones:  Western Semi-arid plain (AEZ 227), Luangwa-Zambezi valley (AEZ 225), Northern high rainfall region (AEZ) 226, and Central Eastern and Southern plateau (AEZ 228). The regional analysis of rainfall showed a reduction across all regions, namely in the Western Semi-arid plain (-32%), Luangwa-Zambezi valley  (-24%), Northern high rainfall region  (-12%), and Central Eastern and Southern plateau (-9%). A slight reduction in potential solar radiation (-0.4%) was observed in the Western semi-arid plain, and other regions recorded an increase in solar radiation. Biomass production decreased across all the zones, reflected in the widespread seasonal rainfall deficits and flooding events of critically affected lowland areas. The VCIx varied from 0.92 to 0.94 across the regions, with the lowest recorded in the Western semi-arid plain  (0.92) and the highest in the Northern high rainfall zone (0.95). However, the area under cultivation remained at 100% in all the regions. The reported period was critical for the plant growth development of rainfed cereal crops, and moisture stress and low input availability largely caused crop yield reduction nationwide.

Table 1: Zambia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and  departure from 15YA, January 2023 – April 2023

Table 2: Zambia’s agronomic indicators by sub ‐ national regions, current season's values and  departure from 5YA, January 2023 – April 2023

Figures on Zambia’s crop condition, January - April 2023

Figure A: Crop Phenology map ZMB

Figure B: Time series rainfall profile

Figure C: Time series temperature profile

Figure D: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure E: Maximum VCI

Figure F: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles