This chapter starts with a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1). Next it presents an updated estimate of national winter crop production (4.2) and describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions located in the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Section 4.4 describes trade prospects (import/export) of major crops. Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is included in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

This report covers the main growing period of winter wheat and rapeseed. The sowing of the first summer crops, such as spring maize and early rice started in March. Half of cropland in China is irrigated and agro-meteorological conditions play important role for the rest crops. Rainfall is not the major influential factor on irrigated cropland.

Generally speaking, agroclimatic conditions over the major winter crops producing regions were normal. For China, RADPAR and TEMP increased by 4% and 1.1℃, respectively, as compared to the 15-year average, whereas RAIN decreased by 12%. Consequently, BIOMSS was at average compared to the 15-year average. During the monitoring period, rainfall in China's main winter crop producing area (Huanghuaihai) was 21% above average and the temperature was 1.4℃ higher. The favorable hydrothermal conditions contributed to the good crop growth state, as confirmed by the VCIx value at 0.86. National CALF decreased by 4% and VCIx was quite fair, with a value of 0.79. National Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.11, indicating slightly better-than-normal crop production conditions. All in all, the conditions for winter crop production in China were fair, apart from Southern- and South-West China, which was affected by a rainfall deficit.

Spatially, most of the arable land (marked in dark green and blue, taking up 92.2% of the arable land) experienced average precipitation throughout the monitoring period, with the absolute value of departure was less than 30 mm/dekad. Arable land in the remaining 7.8% of the regions (marked by light green) went through some rainfall fluctuations, mainly distributed in Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, and some parts of Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangsu. Negative rainfall anomalies (more than 60 mm/dekad below average) occurred in early March, and positive rainfall anomalies (more than 120 mm/dekad above average) occurred in late March. With respect to temperature, the clustered regions all had anomalies with similar changing patterns over time across the whole country. The dark green marked areas, including most parts of Northeast China, Huanghuaihai, and some parts of Lower Yangtze and Southwest China, had the biggest positive temperature departure (more than 6.5℃ above average) in early March. The light green marked areas, including some parts of Inner Mongolia, Loess region and Southwest China, had the biggest negative temperature departure (more than 4.0℃ below average) in late April. The uncropped areas were mainly located in the Northwest and Northeast regions and some parts in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei. Cold temperatures during the winter months make them unsuitable for crop production. 

According to the spatial VCIx patterns, favorable crop conditions (VCIx larger than 0.8) occurred widely across China; values between 0.5 and 0.8 were observed for some parts in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Guizhou. The potential biomass showed significant variability across regions. Positive anomalies (more than 20%, marked in blue) mainly occurred in eastern Northeast China, southern Inner Mongolia, eastern Loess region, and western Huanghuaihai, while negative anomalies (-20% or more) were mainly observed in some parts of Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, and Sichuan. With regard to VHIn, high values (above 35%) were widespread in China, indicating limited water deficit effects on most of the winter crops.

As for the main producing regions at the sub-national level, rainfall was above average in Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai and Loess region by 5%, 21%, and 35%, respectively, while rainfall in other regions was below average, ranging from -31% (Southern China) to -4% (Northeast China and Southwest China). TEMP was all above average, and the range of temperature departures varied from +0.8°C (Southwest China and Loess region) to +1.5°C (Northeast China). RADPAR was above average, except for Inner Mongolia (-1%), Loess region (-1%) and Northeast China (-1%). BIOMSS increased in almost all of the regions compared to average, with the anomalies ranging from +1% (Lower Yangtze) to +20% (Loess region), except for Southern China (-18%) and Southwest China (-2%). CALF in almost all of the regions was all below average to average, and only CALF in Lower Yangtze (+1%) and Huanghuaihai (+3%) was slightly above average. As for VCIx, the values were quite varying for all the regions, ranging between 0.74 (Loess region) and 0.90 (Lower Yangtze region).

Table 4.1 CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, January to April 2023, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Figure 4.1 China crop calendar

Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, January - April 2023

Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, January - April 2023

Figure 4.4 China cropped and uncropped arable land, by pixel, January - April 2023

Figure 4.5 China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, January - April 2023

Figure 4.6 China biomass departure map from 15YA, by pixel, January - April 2023

Figure 4.7 China minimum Vegetation Health Index, by pixel (VHIn), January - April 2023