(1) Winter grain production forecast

The main winter grain producing areas in China experienced abundant precipitation during the overwintering to spring green-up and flowering period. The accumulated rainfall and average temperature were higher than the 15YA for the same period. In March-April, temperatures were cooler than average, which delayed canopy growth. Starting in late April, the weather conditions returned to normal levels. The total winter grain production in China is expected to be 144.14 million tons in 2023, an increase of 1.91 million tons or 1.3% year-on-year (Table 4.2).

Table 4.2 China’s winter crop production

*Note: Summer grains from Taiwan Province are not included in the total production of other provinces and the country.

Fall planting in the North China Plain in 2022 was normal, and the area planted with winter grains increased by 1.6%. For the 2021-22 season, the area had been reduced due to local flooding, which had prevented planting. In Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Hebei, the four major winter grain producing provinces, the planted area increased by 2.2%, 2.8%, 2.5% and 2.4%. Xinjiang's winter grain area increased by 2.2%. Shanxi's and Jiangsu's areas also increased slightly by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively. This contributed to an increase in the national  area of winter cereals  and a return to the 2020-21 level.

There was a wide variation in winter grain yield among the regions. Henan benefited from good agro-meteorological conditions, and its winter grain yield increased by 2.0% year on year. Combined with the increase in area, Henan's winter grain production increased by 1.39 million tons to 34.04 million tons.  Although the winter grain area in Shaanxi decreased by 2.2%, meteorological conditions were generally good and conducive for winter wheat growth and yield formation. The forecasted winter grain yield in Shaanxi increased by 2.4%, offsetting the impact of the area decrease. Most winter grain producing areas in northern China experienced strong cold air in late April. Rain and snow in central Shanxi, western Hubei, and eastern Gansu caused frost damage to winter wheat during the flowering and grainfilling periods, reducing winter grain yields by 3.2%, 4.7%, and 4.4%.

(2) Winter wheat production forecast

This report estimates the winter wheat yield in China for the 2022-23 season. It is based on remote sensing data from ESA Sentinel-1 and 2 and US Landsat 8 satellites, as well as a large survey. We applied machine learning and  crop yield forecasting models in conjunction with the satellilte data, agro-meteorological information and crop survey data to generate the production forecasts. Winter wheat production in China in 2023 is estimated at 130.56 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons or 1.6% (Table 4.3). The area planted with winter wheat reached 23,72 million hectares, recovering to the level of 2020-21. The area planted with winter wheat in 2023 increased by 422 thousand hectares or 1.8% compared with 2022; the average yield of winter wheat was 5505 kg/ha. It had slightly decreased by 0.2% year on year, and the small decrease was mainly due to frost damage in some regions.

The area planted with winter wheat had increased in most provinces, more than offsetting the slight decrease in yield.  In the 2021/22 season, the area had been reduced to flooding. During the current season, planting resumed to average levels.  Henan, Anhui, Hebei, Shandong and other major winter wheat producing provinces in North China increased the winter wheat planting area in 2022 by 2.2%, 2.5%, 1.9% and 2.5%. This resulted in an increase of the winter wheat production by 1.38 million tons, 0.41 million tons, 0.2 million tons and 0.09 million tons. Xinjiang, Shanxi, Gansu, Hubei and Jiangsu provinces and regions also increased their winter wheat area year on year to varying degrees, offsetting the impact of lower yields. Shaanxi and Sichuan winter wheat area decreased by 3.0% and 1.7% year-on-year, respectively, and production decreased by 0.02 million tons and 0.05 million tons.

However, in late May, continuous rainy weather occurred in the major winter wheat production areas of North China, affecting the harvest and drying of wheat in provinces such as Henan. This has led to the emergence of sprouted wheat and mold in some production areas, which may result in a decrease in both the quality and yield of wheat.

Table 4.3 China’s winter wheat production

*Note: Winter wheat in Taiwan Province is not included.