This reporting period covered the overwintering to ripening stage of winter wheat in Southwest China. Based on the NDVI profile, the overall crop conditions during this monitoring period were slightly below the 5-year average.

Agroclimatic indicators indicated a predominance of drier and warmer weather as compared to the 15YA. The RAIN was 304 mm, which was 3.9% below the 15-year average, and the TEMP was 0.8℃ higher than the 15-year average. Solar radiation was slightly higher than the 15YA (RADPAR, +3.3%).

The vegetation condition index (VCI) showed that the optimal vegetation condition reached 0.84, lower than the same period last year (0.89), indicating that the drier conditions had adverse effects on crop growth. Based on the VCI map, the affected areas were mainly in the southern and eastern parts of Sichuan and the northern part of Yunnan. However, these areas are not major winter wheat growing regions, so the impact on winter wheat production is relatively small.

Overall, the crop conditions in the Southwest region were slightly below the five-year average due to reduced precipitation. However, this region is not the core production area for winter wheat, so the impact on winter wheat production in China is relatively small.

Figure 4.16 Crop condition China Southwest region, January - April 2023

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI     (c) NDVI profiles

(d) Maximum VCI

(e) Potential biomass departure from 15YA

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile