(1) International trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China

Maize

In the first quarter, China imported 7.52 million tonnes of maize, an increase of 6% over the previous year. The main sources of maize imports were the United States, Brazil, and Ukraine, accounting for 37.8%, 28.8%, and 27.7% of the total import, respectively.

Rice

In the first quarter, China imported 1.004 million tonnes of rice, a decrease of 39.4% over the previous year. The main sources of rice imports were Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, India, and Pakistan, accounting for 29.2%, 26.8%, 13.7%, 13.3%, and 8.8% of the total import, respectively.

Wheat

In the first quarter, China imported 4.35 million tonnes of wheat and wheat products, a growth of 42.6% over the previous year. The main sources of wheat imports were Australia, Canada, and France, accounting for 58.2%, 18%, and 17.8% of the total import, respectively.

Soybean

In the first quarter, China imported 23.02 million tonnes of soybeans, an increase of 13.5% over the previous year. The main sources of soybean imports were the United States, Brazil, and Argentina, accounting for 71.3%, 17%, and 6.2% of the total import, respectively.

(2) Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2022

On the basis of remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2023 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, it is predicted that the import of major grain crops will decrease in 2023. The details are as follows:

In 2023, China's maize import will increase by 10.3%, and exports will decrease by 5.1%. With the recovery of domestic demand for feed grains and the downward trend of international maize prices, China's maize imports are expected to increase. In particular, the opening of channels for maize imports from Brazil contributes to the anticipated increase in maize imports in 2023.

In 2023, China's rice import will decrease by 14.2%, and exports will decrease by 3.2%. Factors such as the uncertainty of policies, such as increased tariffs by the Indian government, and reduced production due to disasters, contribute to weakened rice import demand in China. It is expected that rice imports in China will decrease in 2023.

In 2023, China's wheat import will increase by 20.1%, and exports will decrease by 5.8% in 2023. The main driving factors for wheat imports are strong domestic demand for high-quality special-purpose wheat and the price advantage of foreign wheat. Considering the economic complexities following the COVID-19 pandemic, wheat imports in 2023 are expected to remain at a relatively high level.

In 2023, China's soybean import will increase by 4.6%, while exports will remain relatively stable. Despite domestic efforts to increase soybean oilseed production capacity, imported soybeans remain the main raw material for soybean crushing. Brazil and the United States will continue to be the main sources of soybean imports. It is expected that soybean imports in China will increase in 2023.

Figure 4.15 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2023 (%)