5.2 CropWatch food production estimates

Production estimates

Based on the global agro-climatic conditions and agricultural indicators, global wheat production is forecast to be 746 million tonnes with an increase of 5.47 million tonnes (+0.7%); global soybean production is 327 million tonnes with an increase of 7.13 million tonnes (+2.2%); global corn production is 1049 million tonnes with an increase of 0.4%; global rice production is 751 million tonnes with a decrease of 0.5%. From January to April 2023, agro-climatic conditions were generally normal in the wheat-producing countries in the northern hemisphere, and the wheat production is good. Drought-season rice in South and Southeast Asia, which is largely dependent on irrigation, experiences a slight change in yields. All in all, the global food production is expected to be normal.

Wheat: In 2022-2023, global wheat production is estimated to be 746 million tonnes with an increase of 5.47 million tonnes over 2021-2022. Most European countries, Morocco and other wheat producing countries experienced a relatively large recovery and production increase. The most noteworthy improvements were estimated for  Romania, Hungary, Morocco and Belarus, resulting in increases  in production by 18.1%, 16.7%, 14.8% and 11.6%, respectively. Turkey suffered from a strong earthquake and a rainfall deficit in February, but the earthquake had a more limited effect on crops.  The abundant rainfall since March has eased the drought conditions, leading to an increase in wheat production by 12.7%. In India and Pakistan, wheat yields and total production increased slightly to 94.99 million tonnes and 25.89 million tonnes, respectively, due to generally normal agro-climatic conditions and the absence of extreme heat which had caused yield losses in March 2022. Wheat cultivation area increased by 1.8% in China, leading to a recovery in wheat production to 136.33 million tonnes with an increase of 2.14 million tonnes (+1.6%). In Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and the main production areas in USA, wheat production was affected by drougth conditions, causing a reduction in area and yield. This led to a decrease in production by 14.6% in Afghanistan, by 12.4% in Uzbekistand and 5.2% in the USA.  In Russia, wheat cultivation area fell by 4.9%, with total wheat production falling by 5.4%. Global wheat production is good, but global wheat supply and demand will remain tight due to the Ukraine crisis.

Soybean: Soybean production in Brazil and Argentina, two major agricultural countries in South America, reached 150.41 million tonnes, with an increase of 3.5 million tonnes by 2.4%. Although neighbors, Brazil and Argentina have very different agro-climatic conditions and soybean production. In Argentina, the major soybean production areas experienced prolonged dry weather throughout the growing season, with drought conditions not only affecting soybean planting but also leading to a substantial reduction in soybean yields. As a result, soybean production in Argentina fell by as much as 9.77 million tonnes to 42.01 million tonnes, which is the biggest drop in five years. In contrast, rainfall was basically the same as last year in main Brazilian soybean production areas. Rainfall was normal during the flowering period, resulting in  significantly higher yields than in 2022.  Coupled with a small increase in soybean cultivation area, soybean production in Brazil recovered to 108.4 million tonnes. This is an increase of 13.9%, reversing the momentum of two consecutive years of declining yields.

Maize: Total maize production in the countries of the Southern Hemisphere and Equatorial region was 201.25 million tonnes, with an increase of 4.16 million tonnes or 2.1%. Maize production increases or decreases in the major producing countries vary. The first maize production in Brazil  decreased, while the cultivation area of second maize increased and irrigated yields increased, so that second maize production is expected to increase substantially, bringing Brazilian maize production to 100.68 million tonnes, with an increase of 10.3%. In Kenya, an increase of maize cultivation area in the long rainy season compensated for the impact of the short rainy season and the reduction in maize production due to drought. Thus, the national maize production increased by 5.3%. In Argentina, the main maize producing areas suffered from a prolonged drought and maize production fell sharply by 9.6%. The rest of the countries experienced relatively small changes in maize production.

Early monitoring indicators of crop cultivation area based on remote sensing indicate that the progress of maize planting in the United States and Canada is slower, lagging behind by 8% and 10%，respectively. However, maize planting in most European countries is progressing much faster.

Rice: In 2023, irrigated rice production in the dry winter-season was generally normal in South and Southeast Asia, with small increases in rice production in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, but small decreases in rice cultivation area in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Myanmar, India and the Philippines, with rice production in each country decreasing by 3.0%, 2.2%, 1.7%, 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively. As a result, global rice production decreased by 3.71 million tonnes. Angola, Argentina and Brazil, the countries of the Southern Hemisphere, experienced varying degrees of decline in rice cultivation area, with rice production falling by 4.5%, 3.0% and 0.6%, respectively.

Table 5.1  2023 cereal and soybean production estimates in thousand tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change of 2023 production when compared with corresponding 2022 values.