This section covers the January-April 2023 disaster events worldwide. Apart from floods, cyclones, and droughts, this section also highlights the current situation of the Desert locust across the globe as well as the current food production situation in war-torn Ukraine.

1. Russia-Ukraine conflict

Ukraine and Russia collectively supply around one-third of the wheat that is traded globally. They are also significant providers of fertilizer, cooking oil, and feed grains like maize. These nations play a vital role as suppliers to numerous countries in the Middle East and Africa. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a severe disruption in the wheat supply. This disruption has led to a surge in prices and far-reaching consequences, affecting various agricultural products such as maize, vegetable oil, and fertilizer on a global scale. Nevertheless, a year after the invasion, some positive developments in crop production can be observed. According to the Remote Sensing CropWatch monitoring system, agronomic indicators show that between January and April 2023, the national cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 7% compared to the average of the past five years. The southern wheat and maize regions experienced even higher increases in CALF, with respective growth rates of 14% and 6%. Moreover, despite a decrease in photosynthetic active radiation (RADPAR) by 16%, the country recorded an overall increase in biomass production by 5% due to above-average rainfall.

If the grain exports from Ukraine can be sustained in the coming months, supply and demand on the international grain market may become better balanced, resulting in lower food prices for those who are suffering from hunger. 

2. Desert Locust situation

The desert locust is a grasshopper found in the desert and semi-arid regions of Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. They form swarms and can cause significant crop damage and they have been a threat to food security for centuries and remain a concern for affected countries. This section highlights the desert situation during the period of January to March 2023. The spatial distribution of the desert locust thought the reporting period is shown in Figure 1. At the beginning of the reporting period, the Desert Locust situation remained calm. In the southern Western Sahara of Morocco, scattered hoppers and adults were observed, including a few adult groups. Similarly, in nearby Mauritania, there was a decline in locust numbers. Ground teams treated a total area of 467 hectares in Morocco and 35 hectares in Mauritania. Sudan's Red Sea coast had hoppers and adults present, and a few hopper groups began to form. In Sudan, a total of 204 hectares were treated. Yemen's coast had low numbers of adults, and a few adults were seen in Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, and northwest Somalia. In February, the Desert Locust situation remained relatively stable. However, like in January, there were sightings of small groups of adult locusts in scattered locations, particularly in the southern Western Sahara region of Morocco, where some mating behavior was observed. To address this issue, a total of 606 hectares were treated. In Sudan, adult locust groups increased along the Red Sea coast and subcoastal areas as vegetation began to dry out. A total of 3,826 hectares were treated to control the population. In Saudi Arabia, a few mature groups of adult locusts were observed mating on the northern Red Sea coast, and 410 hectares were treated to address this issue. Only a small number of adult locusts were present in southeast Egypt and the Red Sea coast of Yemen.

Throughout March, the Desert Locust situation remained relatively calm, with breeding occurring in Saudi Arabia. At the end of the winter season, small numbers of solitary adult locusts and a few groups were observed in various regions, including southern Western Sahara, south of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco, and the Red Sea coasts of Sudan and southeast Egypt. In Saudi Arabia, adult locust groups had been laying eggs since the end of February in two small areas along the northern coast. By March, these eggs had hatched, resulting in new hoppers that had formed small groups and some bands. Meanwhile, in Yemen, only a small number of adult locusts were observed along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coast. During the month of April, the Desert Locust situation remained calm. However, the small outbreak that developed from the spring breeding in March increased in Saudi Arabia in April. By the end of April, some late hopper groups, bands, and new immature adult groups were observed. Furthermore, in Northwest Africa, there were small hopper groups and bands present in the south of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco, as well as further south in Western Sahara, and control measures were carried out.

Figure 1. Desert locust situation during January-April 2023 (A-January, B-February, C-March, and D-April)

3. Cyclones, floods, and landslides

Cyclone Freddy's effects in Madagascar, Mozambique, and Malawi:  On February 21, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Freddy struck the eastern coast of Madagascar. Initially a category 3 cyclone, Freddy then proceeded to impact Mozambique and Malawi. Its impact on the precipitation in Mozambique is shown in Figure 2.

The aftermath of this cyclone brought about widespread devastation, including extensive destruction, flooding, and relentless downpours, affecting over 1.4 million individuals across the three countries of Mozambique, Malawi, and Madagascar. This catastrophic event has pushed the capacities of healthcare facilities to their limits. Countless homes, schools, roads, and various forms of infrastructure have been either destroyed or severely damaged, while vast stretches of farmland have become inundated.

The devastating Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which made landfall in the Inhambane district of Vilanculos, Mozambique, on the 24th of February 2023, unleashed its fury upon the region, causing widespread destruction and upheaval. The National Institute for Risk and Disasters Management reported that the cyclone brought with it torrential rainfall, affecting nearly 166,600 people residing in the area. The impact was swift and severe, leaving a trail of devastation in its wake. According to the report, the agricultural sector bore the brunt of the cyclone's wrath, with approximately 38,100 hectares of cropland feeling the full force of its destructive power. The loss was further compounded by the destruction of over 18,700 hectares of land that had been cropped with diverse crops, a blow to the livelihoods and food security of the affected communities.

But the tale of destruction did not end there. After ravaging the Inhambane district, Cyclone Freddy continued its tumultuous journey across Mozambique. Unrelenting, it made a harrowing return and once again made landfall in Quelimane city, Zambezia province, between the 11th and 12th of March 2023. This time, the cyclone unleashed its fury with winds ranging from 106 to 170 kilometers per hour. The provinces of Sofala, Nampula, and Tete, in addition to Zambezia province, experienced the ferocity of Freddy's return. These regions, already reeling from the aftermath of weeks of intensive rainfall and flooding, found themselves subjected to further devastation and suffering. The southern and central parts of the country had already been significantly impacted, but Freddy's return intensified the scale of the disaster in the country, exuberating the current food shortages and the increasing international food prices. The consequences of Tropical Cyclone Freddy's reappearance were staggering. The lives of at least 9,369 people were directly affected, plunging them into a state of despair and uncertainty.

The occurrence of Cyclone Freddy in Malawi caused an outbreak of Cholera, further exacerbating the existing emergency in the country. The southern region of the country experienced the heaviest rainfall, particularly in districts such as Blantyre, Phalombe, Mulanje, Chikhwawa, and Nsanje. Devastating flash floods wreaked havoc in numerous areas, sweeping away homes, and people, and causing extensive damage to infrastructure. The impact of Freddy resulted in a tragic loss of life, with at least 1,216 people reported dead and 537 individuals still missing and presumed deceased. In addition, 1,332 injuries were reported. According to Médecins Sans Frontières, Blantyre alone accounted for at least 192 deaths, including 40 children, while Mulanje recorded 135 fatalities. The disaster forced approximately 180,000 people to evacuate their homes, affecting a total of 500,000 individuals across the country.

The floodwaters submerged over 430 km2 of land, causing significant losses for smallholder farmers. Crops and fields were destroyed, with approximately 204,833 hectares of cropland being inundated. Of this total, 84,930 hectares were submerged, while 119,930 hectares were washed away. The timing of the storm's arrival was particularly devastating as it occurred just as farmers were preparing for harvest, compounding the nation's existing food insecurities. In addition to the agricultural damage, the storm also inflicted significant harm on farms, many of which were damaged or completely destroyed. Livestock suffered greatly as well, with 194,500 animals perishing and an additional 91,000 sustaining injuries. The overall impact of Cyclone Freddy was immense, causing widespread displacement, loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, and severe setbacks to the agricultural sector and local food security.

Figure 2. CropWatch's rainfall profile in the southern region of Mozambique (January-April 2023)

Türkiye: On 14-15 March 2023, Türkiye experienced heavy rainfall in the provinces of Adyaman and Sanliurfa in the southern region, resulting in devastating floods. In a span of 24 hours, Adyaman received approximately 136 mm of rainfall, while Sanliurfa witnessed around 111 mm of rainfall. Unfortunately, these intense floods have resulted in the loss of 14 lives, according to reports. This flood event occurred at a particularly challenging time for Turkey, as the country was already dealing with the aftermath of a recent earthquake. The combination of these natural disasters has further exacerbated the situation, leaving thousands of people in a state of emergency and in desperate need of food assistance.

California - USA: 

Since early January 2023, a sequence of nine powerful atmospheric river storms has relentlessly battered the state of California in the United States. These storms have brought heavy rains, snowfall, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds.  The impact of the storms extends beyond residential areas, as agricultural land in the state has also been affected, posing a threat to California's agricultural production.

With flooded farm fields and the looming prospect of additional rainfall, the prices of food are expected to rise. California is responsible for producing approximately one-third of the vegetables and three-quarters of the fruits and nuts consumed in the US, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture. Moreover, California holds the distinction of being America's largest agricultural exporter, with exclusive exports of various products such as almonds, artichokes, dates, and garlic, among others, as indicated by the California Agricultural Statistics Review 2020-2021. The losses incurred in crops due to this series of storms could have repercussions on exports. While grocery prices have remained stable thus far, there is a possibility of an increase in the upcoming weeks if the situation deteriorates, as reported.

4. Earthquake

The devastating earthquake that occurred on February 6, 2023, in the southern part of Türkiye and the northern part of Syria had severe consequences for agriculture in both countries. In Türkiye, the earthquake had a significant impact on 11 key agricultural provinces, affecting approximately 15.73 million people and more than 20% of food production. Of the affected population, about one-third reside in rural communities and heavily rely on agriculture for their livelihoods, making their situation even more challenging.

In Syria, where an estimated 12.1 million people (over 50% of the country's population) already face food insecurity due to the civil war, the earthquake further exacerbated the situation. Additionally, more than 2.9 million people are at risk of slipping into hunger. The earthquake struck at a time when food prices were already soaring in the country. Agriculture remains a major source of livelihood in several parts of Syria, and the damage to agricultural infrastructure caused by the earthquake could jeopardize food production.

The earthquake's effects on agriculture can also be assessed through Copwatch's national crop development graph, which utilizes the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). During the reported period of the earthquake, the graph indicates below-average crop conditions in both Türkiye and Syria. These unfavorable conditions can have a detrimental impact on crop production, further worsening the existing food insecurity situation in both countries.

5. Drought

East Africa: Eastern Africa, particularly Somalia, has been teetering on the brink of famine for several months due to a combination of consecutive poor rainy seasons, escalating international food prices, and the rise of conflicts and displacement. The monitoring period has revealed a concerning drought situation in East Africa, characterized by vegetation stress caused by insufficient rainfall or soil moisture deficit, especially in southern Ethiopia and Somalia. Other regions experienced a watch condition due to the lack of rainfall (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Monthly drought indicator for West Africa from January-April 2023 (left: VHI, right: SPI)

During February, an alert situation persisted in Ethiopia, Somalia, and southern Kenya, with vegetation stress intensifying following inadequate rainfall or soil moisture. By March, the situation further deteriorated in southern Tanzania. The severity of the drought has resulted in a dire food insecurity crisis in the affected areas. Unfortunately, this crisis is expected to persist, leading to elevated humanitarian needs throughout 2023. Forecasts indicate the likelihood of a sixth consecutive failed rainy season extending until May 2023, exacerbating the ongoing food shortage.

South America: South America is currently experiencing a prolonged and extensive drought, resulting from a combination of multi-annual rainfall deficits, above-average temperatures, and a series of heatwaves. The severe drought initially affected Brazil and later spread to the southwest region, currently impacting Uruguay, northern Argentina, and southern Patagonia. This phenomenon is significantly affecting hydrology, river flow, and energy production, consequently leading to vegetation stress and hindering crop development throughout the region. As a consequence, crop yields have significantly decreased. In Argentina, soybean production in 2023 is anticipated to be 44% lower than the average of the previous five years, marking the lowest soy harvest since 1988/89. Figure 4 highlights the drought situation in South America as of April 2023 based on the Standardized Precipitation Index with 4 years accumulation period.

Figure 4. Drought situation in South America as of April 2023 based on the Standardized Precipitation Index with 4 years accumulation period.

As South America prepares for the shift to El Niño conditions, seasonal forecasts indicate warmer temperatures and fluctuating precipitation levels. Dryer-than-average conditions are expected in northern Argentina and Uruguay from May to June 2023. Brazil is projected to have average conditions, while central and coastal Peru may experience slightly wetter conditions. It is crucial to closely monitor the situation to gain a better understanding of the precise impacts during the upcoming months. Nevertheless, the prolonged absence of rainfall, severe heatwaves, and the forecasted above-average temperatures are highly likely to further reduce river flows, directly impacting agriculture, ecosystems, and energy production.

Spain: Since the start of the hydrological year, Spain has experienced a significant decrease in rainfall, with current reports indicating a reduction of 28%. This lack of rain has had various consequences, including depleted reservoirs, withered olive groves, and the implementation of water restrictions nationwide. A recent report by Copernicus Climate Change Services highlights that soil moisture levels throughout Europe in 2022 were the second lowest in the past 50 years.

The prolonged drought was further intensified by unseasonable heat. On April 26, a hot air mass from North Africa swept over southern Spain, causing the temperature at Córdoba airport to reach 38.8°C, the highest recorded April temperature in Spain. The effects of the drought are also visible through vegetation stress. Figure 5 presents a map of satellite-derived normalized vegetation conditions across the country. Based on MODIS data, figure 5 displays the anomalies in NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from March 25 to April 23, 2023, compared to the long-term average (2000-2010) for the same period. Southern Spain, being a crucial agricultural region, exhibits negative anomalies, indicating poor vegetation conditions. This is further supported by Figure 6, which depicts the CropWatch National NDVI-based crop conditions development, revealing below-average crop conditions throughout the entire reporting period (2022). These conditions may result in below-average crop production in the country.

Figure 5. Spatial distribution of vegetation conditions based on the NDVI across Spain (March-April 2023)

(source: https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/151000/151366/iberianndvi_tmo_2023084_2023113_lrg.jpg)

Figure 6. Spain crop conditions development graph based on NDVI (January-April 2023)

Maghreb region: The cereal production in the Maghreb region, stretching from Mauritania in the west to the western parts of Libya in the east, is severely affected by drought caused by a lack of rainfall. Cumulative NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) anomalies for Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, compared to the medium-term period of 2013-2022, indicate unfavorable vegetation conditions and lower crop potential this year in North Africa (see Figure 7).

Figure 7. NDVI anomalies for Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, compared to the medium-term period of 2013-2022(source: https://www.graincentral.com/markets/maghreb-cereal-production-troubled-by-drought/)

Morocco experiences the most severe drought conditions, resulting in a significant loss of production potential. Rainfall levels recorded since September 2022 are the lowest in over 30 years. Consequently, the autumn sowing activity has been delayed by up to 30 days, and some farmlands are too dry for planting. Reports suggest that the wheat area planted in Morocco this season covers 2.38 million hectares, which is 11% lower than the average of the past five years. The expected harvest of 1.49 metric tonnes per hectare is 23% below the five-year average of 1.94 tonnes per hectare.

Tunisia has also been impacted by reduced rainfall, which has directly affected soil moisture levels, surpassing the growth rate of wheat and barley plants, except in irrigated areas. Wheat production is forecasted to be 0.99 million tonnes, 14% lower than the five-year average, considering an average planted area. Barley's output is expected to decrease by 29% compared to the five-year average, reaching 0.37 million tonnes.

The decline in cereal production throughout North Africa will inevitably lead to increased demand for European exports, which are already surpassing the levels seen in the 2021/22 marketing year.

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