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OverviewMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: tianfuyou

3.1 Overview

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 46 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports are being dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Together, they are supplying three quarters of maize being traded internationally. Brazil has substantially increased its production in recent years, whereas Ukraine’s export has been hampered by the Russian invasion. In Argentina, conditions for maize production were unfavorable due to the lack of rainfall.  While Brazil's precipitation was below average, it was still sufficient to ensure good yields. In the USA, a cool spring, yet combined with favorable moisture conditions, delayed the sowing and germination of maize. However, prospects for USA maize production remain favorable. Rainfall was generally above average in July. In Europe, conditions for maize production have been generally favorable as well. Higher rainfall created better conditions for maize in Eastern Europe than last year. Similarly, maize in East Africa has also benefitted from higher rainfall. Above average rainfall has also created favorable conditions for maize production in the North China Plain and in the Northeast of China. Flooding caused some localized damage.

Rice: Most rainfed (Kharif) rice grown in South Asia was sown or transplanted in June and July. So far, monsoon rain has been normal to excessive. Intense rainfall in July caused flooding in parts of India and Pakistan. Nevertheless, prospects are generally favorable, although India has restricted rice exports in response to the floods.  In Southeast Asia, where El Niño might cause a rainfall deficit in the coming months, conditions have been rather favorable so far and average production can be expected. The only exception is Myanmar, where the civil conflict is disrupting the supply of inputs. In addition, rainfall has been below average. In the USA, favorable rainfall in California and the South are ensuring good conditions for rice production.

Wheat: Conditions for wheat production have been rather favorable. In the USA, drought during the winter months caused a yield reduction in the southern High Plains. In the other regions, as well as in Canada, conditions were close to normal. Similarly, conditions for winter wheat production in Europe were close to normal. Only Spain had suffered from a severe rainfall deficit. But especially in Central and Eastern Europe, conditions have been quite favorable. In Russia, drier than usual conditions in the Volga regions and the region west of the Ural caused a slight reduction in production. In the other regions, conditions were normal. Similarly, conditions were average in Kazakhstan and in China. Wet conditions during the wheat harvest in late May and early June impacted the quality of wheat produced in Henan, China's most important wheat producer. In Australia, rainfall levels returned to average, which will also bring down wheat yields from the record levels recorded in the past couple of years. In South Africa, rainfall was higher than usual in the Cape Province, which will help produce high yields. In the Highlands of Ethiopia, rainfall has been average, causing favorable production conditions in that region  as well.

Soybean: In the USA and Canada, conditions for soybean production have been rather favorable. There were some dry spells in late May and June, but rainfall recovered to above average levels in July, which will ensure favorable conditions during the pod filling stage. Similarly, conditions for soybean production in Europe have also been quite favorable. While the agrometeorological conditions for soybean production in the Ukraine have been rather favorable, production in the war zones will be limited. Moreover, the Russian blockade and mining of the ports and bombing of grain handling facilities will most likely reduce exports.

2. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

2.1 Rainfall

In South America, rainfall was more than 30% below average in the center and northeast of Brazil. The deficit was smaller (-10 to -30%) in the south. In Argentina, most of the grain production regions also had a small deficit. Central America generally also received below average rainfall. The deficit was more severe in Mexico and the southern Rocky Mountains in the USA. The Pacific Northwest of the USA received average rainfall, whereas there was a slight deficit in the corn belt and northeast. In Europe, rainfall was greatly reduced in Spain and Portugal. Most countries in the eastern Mediterranean region, including Türkyie, received above average rainfall. In Eastern Europe, some regions of Russia experienced below average rainfall. The Central Asian countries, including Afghanistan, continued to suffer from the prolonged drought. Pakistan and western India had above average rainfall, with a departure by more than 30%. Conditions were mixed in Africa, although most of the continent experienced below average rainfall. Central China had above average rainfall, but its south had a deficit ranging from -10 to -30%. Western and Southeastern Australia experienced below average rainfall. The deficit was larger in the Northeast.

 

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of April  2023  to July 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in percent.

 

(2) Temperatures

In the Americas, south of the USA-Mexican border, temperatures were mostly above average by 0.5 to 1.5ºC. In Central Brazil, temperatures deviated even more strongly from the long-term average. In the USA, California and a few states in the east experienced cooler temperatures (-0.5 to -1.5ºC). In most of the other states, temperatures were average or slightly above average. The Canadian Prairies also experienced warmer than usual weather. The drought-stricken Iberian Peninsula was much warmer than usual. The Ukraine and the neighboring Russian regions were cooler than usual. Warmer temperatures were observed for the region west of the Ural, while for the regions on the other side, as well as in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, cooler temperatures were recorded. Pakistan and the western part of India were also cooler. All of Southeast Asia experienced warmer conditions. The weather in Africa tended to be near average or warmer than usual. Australia had mixed conditions. The West was cooler, and the South and East were average.

 

Figure 3.2 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of April 2023  to July 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in °C .

 

2.3 RADPAR

Most of Argentina received below average solar radiation. Especially the Pampas were more cloudy than usual. In Brazil, to the contrary, conditions were more sunny than usual. Most of the USA had below average solar radiation. Especially the western half and the south had below average radiation. In the cornbelt, however, solar radiation was above average, Especially Iowa and Illinois were sunnier than usual. In Western Europe, conditions were sunnier than usual, whereas in central and eastern Europe, solar radiation tended to be more than 3% below average. The region west of the Ural was sunnier. Central China had less sunshine, but its south had above average solar radiation. All of Southeast Asia had above average solar radiation. In Africa, the north tended to receive below average solar radiation, whereas the equatorial and southern regions received above average  solar radiation. In Australia, the West had received below average, and the East above average solar radiation.

 

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of April  2023  to July 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in percent.

 

2.4 Biomass production

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly tropical ones, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high-latitude regions, the temperature may also limit biomass production. Most of the important crop production regions of South America had below average biomass production due to the rainfall deficit. Similarly, a strong negative departure was estimated for Mexico and most of the USA. Only Texas, and the northwest and southeast had average biomass production. A negative departure was estimated for the Iberian Peninsula, most of Central and Eastern Europe as well as Siberia and the Middle East. More favorable conditions for biomass production were estimated for Pakistan and most of India. For most of West Africa, below average biomass production was estimated. In China, abundant rainfall created favorable conditions for the North China Plain. In Australia, conditions were predominantly below average.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of of April  2023  to July 2023 total relative to the 2008-2022 average (15YA), in percent.