As shown on the phenology map, the main cereals in Afghanistan during the monitoring period of this bulletin include spring wheat, winter wheat, maize and rice. Winter wheat got harvested in April and May. The other crops were sown in that time frame as well. Maize will reach maturity in August and rice one month later.

The agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN decreased by 55%, TEMP increased by 0.5°C and RADPAR increased by 1%. BIOMSS decreased by 14% as compared to the 15YA. The CALF decreased by 41%, reaching only 8%, and the VCIx was recorded at 0.44.

Based on the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, it is evident that the growth of crops remained below both last year's and the five-year average levels.

The last CropWatch bulletin highlighted that adverse agricultural conditions persist in Afghanistan, with negative NDVI departures for 48.2% of the total cropped areas. These challenging conditions are predominantly concentrated in the northern regions of the country, including Balkh, Faryab, and Jowzjan provinces. Afghanistan has been grappling with a four-year-long drought, causing groundwater levels to steadily decline. This year's insufficient rainfall in April and May, coupled with the continued hot and dry climate, has further exacerbated the situation, making water supply even more challenging.

Around 38% of the total cropped areas, mainly located in the central and southern regions of Afghanistan, are experiencing average crop growth. However, some provinces encountered flooding disasters in late July, such as Wardak and Kabul. These events, affecting relatively dispersed and limited agricultural lands, had only a restricted impact at the national level.

Furthermore, Afghanistan's Crop Performance Index (CPI) stood at 0.74, indicating a poor overall agricultural production situation. All in all, the crop conditions in Afghanistan are even worse than last year. In addition, a large portion of arable farm land remained uncropped.

Afghanistan's vulnerability due to fragile infrastructure and a significant portion of its population living below the poverty line amplifies the challenges posed by consecutive years of poor crop growth. The combination of this year's arid conditions and localized flooding disasters has further exacerbated the already dire crop growth situation, escalating the threat to food security. Urgent actions are needed to address these challenges and ensure the well-being of the population.

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography. They are described below as Central region with sparse vegetation (1), Dry region (2), Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region (3), and Mixed dry farming and grazing region (4).

The RAIN in the Central region with sparse vegetation was 51 mm, indicating a decrease of 67% compared to the 15YA. TEMP was 16.0°C, showing an increase of 1.5°C. RADPAR measured 1644 MJ/m2, which represents a 1% increase. The BIOMSS decreased by 18%. The CALF experienced a decrease of 9% as compared to the 5YA, now standing at 10%. The VCIx value was 0.54. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the crop conditions in this region were below average and similar to last year's levels.

The Dry region experienced reduced RAIN at 74 mm (-10%), accompanied by elevated TEMP at 23.4°C (+0.7°C). RADPAR measured 1634 MJ/m2 (-2%). According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, crop conditions were subpar, and CALF was limited to 5% (-10%). The VCIx of 0.31 highlighted poor crop growth.

The Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region experienced a substantial RAIN decrease with 127 mm recorded (-60%). The TEMP rose slightly to 17.5°C (+0.2°C), while RADPAR increased to 1613 MJ/m2 (+3%). BIOMSS exhibited a decline of 21% at 559 g DM/m2, and CALF dropped to 13% (-39%). The VCIx value was 0.51. The NDVI graph shows that conditions were below the average and below those of the previous year.

In the Mixed dry farming and grazing region, RAIN was 17 mm, signifying a substantial decrease by 76% compared to the 15YA. TEMP stood at 21.6°C, marking an increase of 0.8°C. RADPAR was measured at 1642 MJ/m2, closely aligning with average levels. CALF was extremely low at 2%, indicating a significant decrease of 77%. The VCIx value was 0.44. BIOMSS measured 491 g DM/m2, displaying a 17% reduction. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the NDVI values were notably lower than the five-year average, pointing to unfavorable conditions.

Figure 3.5 Afghanistan’s crop condition, April - July 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                               (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_Veg Region (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_Irrigated Region (left) and Dry (right))

Table 3.2 Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2023

Table 3.3 Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2023