National Analysis

In Angola, the monitoring period from April to July corresponds to crucial stages in the harvesting of both maize and rice. For this period, land preparation and wheat plantation activities were undertaken in designated wheat planting regions. This timeframe aligns with the colder season, and as evidenced by national agroclimatic indicators, the cumulative rainfall for this period was 168mm. This amount is 13% lower than the fifteen-year historical average. Alongside this, the temperature has risen by 0.7ºC during the same period. Simultaneously, reductions have been observed in the total photosynthetic active radiation, showing a decline of 1%. Taken together, these conditions potentially contribute to a decrease in the overall biomass production within the country, with a decline of 3% in estimated biomass production levels.

The slightly negative anomalies recorded in total rainfall, coupled with the observed temperature rises, exerted a notable impact on the wheat production zone. According to the national crop conditions development based on the NDVI profile, the crop conditions across these regions remained below the five-year historical average throughout the reporting period. However, there also are positive indications within the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) for the provinces of Zaire, Uige, Cuanza Norte, Bengo, Luanda, and Huila. Nonetheless, despite the promising outlook for VCIx in these provinces, the spatial NDVI patterns, in conjunction with the NDVI profiles, indicate that crop conditions in these areas still lagged behind the five-year historical average. However, moderate proximity to average crop conditions is reported in 64.4% of the region.

Across the entire nation, the proportion of cropped arable land saw a 1% expansion, while the maximum VCIx reached a value of 0.88. Coupled with a national crop production index of 1.09, the outlook for agricultural yields in Angola during the reporting period appears slightly below average. 

Regional Analysis

Considering the cropping systems, climate zones, and topographic conditions, CropWatch has divided Angola into five agroecological zones (AEZs), including the Arid zone (5), Central Plateau (6), Humid zone (7), Semi-arid zone (8), and Sub-humid zone (9).

At the regional level, the agroclimatic indicators show that, apart from the arid zone, which recorded a 24% increase in total rainfall, the remaining zones experienced decreases: 10% in the subhumid zone, 20% in the central plateau, 21% in the semiarid zone, and 23% in the humid zone. The recorded temperatures increased in all agroecological zones, with the highest increases observed in the humid zone (TEMP +0.6ºC) and the semiarid zone (TEMP +1.1ºC). During this period, Photosynthetic Active Radiation (RADPAR) decreased in all regions except the arid zone. The combination of increased total rainfall and decreased RADPAR in the arid zone resulted in a 3% increase in total biomass production across the region. Conversely, this indicator recorded a 2% decrease in the humid zone and a 3% decrease in the central plateau, semiarid zone, and subhumid zone.

The regional crop development, as depicted by NDVI graphs, reveals unfavorable crop conditions throughout the monitoring period in the semiarid and subhumid zones. The arid and central plateau zones reported conditions close to the average. In the humid zone, crop conditions remained below the average of the past five years from April until the end of May, recovering in June. However, by the end of the monitoring period, crop conditions in this region became  less favorable.

Regarding the agronomic indicators, the arid zone registered a 10% expansion in the total cropped arable land area, whereas in the central plateau and semiarid zone, this expansion was 2%. Increases in Cropped Arable Land Area Fraction (CALF) were also noted in the Sub-humid zone (CALF +1%), while in the Humid zone, it remained around the average. The maximum VCIx observed during this period was 0.94 in the Humid zone, while the lowest value of 0.79 was recorded in the Semiarid zone. The CPI for this period varied from 1 to 1.1.

Figure 3.6. Angola's crop condition, January-April 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                   (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                              (e) NDVI profiles

(g) National time-series rainfall profiles                                    (f) National time-series temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Arid zone (left) and Central Plateau (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Humid zone (left) and Semi-arid zone (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Subhumid zone

Table 3.3. Angola’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, April-July 2023

Table 3.4. Angola’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, April-July 2023

Table 3.5. Angola’s crop production index, October 2022 - January 2023