According to the phenology map, Australia's wheat was sown in May, and will be ready for harvest starting in October.  Below-average rainfall was received at the national scale (-15%). Both the temperature and radiation were average. Insufficient rainfall resulted in a below-average estimate for biomass (-8%). The agronomic indicators were positive, with a VCIx of 0.74 and an average CALF (+1%).

The national NDVI from April to July was slightly better than last 5-years average, but considerably lower than 5-years maximum. The VCI map also indicates that the crop conditions were overall average. Low values (< 0.5) were mainly found in the southwest and southeast areas of the country. The NDVI departure clustering shows that 15.1% of the cropland remained below average throughout the whole monitoring period, and 16.5% were mostly below, while only 15.9% were favourable.

Overall, the agro-climatic indicators in the reporting period are below last year's levels, but still close to the longerm average.  The average CALF and NDVI, and CPI of 0.86 indicate near average crop conditions.

Regional analysis

Australia has five agro-ecological zones (AEZs), namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone (marked as 18 on the NDVI clustering map), Southeastern Wheat Zone (19), Subhumid Subtropical Zone (20), Southwestern Wheat Zone (21), Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone (22). The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

The Southeastern wheat zone had average agro-climatic indicators (RAIN, +1%; TEMP, -0.2°C; RADPAR, -4%), which led to an average biomass accumulation estimation (BIOMSS, 0%). The CALF was also average, and the maximum VCI was 0.81. The condition for this region have been normal, so far. The production of wheat will be determined by the climatic conditions in the next period.

The rainfall was only 81 mm in Subhumid subtropical zone (-45%), which caused a soil moisture deficit. The temperature was average (+0.1 °C), and the radiation was slightly above average (+5%). The biomass was largely below average (-22%). The CALF (-5%), VCIx of 0.59, and the mostly below average NDVI profiles all indicated  poor conditions in this AEZ.

The Southwestern wheat encountered a dry (RAIN, -16%), cold (TEMP, -1.1 °C), and cloudy (RADPAR, -5%) period. The biomass was consequently below average (-12%). The CALF was slightly increased by +4%, with a VCIx of 0.69. The NDVIs were above average from April to May, but then below average. The condition in this zone was below average.

The Wet temperate and subtropical zone was also dry (-19%), but warmer (+0.5 °C). The radiation was average (+2%). The below average rainfall caused a below average biomass (-8%). The CALF was average and VCIx was 0.78. The mostly below average NDVI profile indicates an unfavorable condition.

Overall, the conditions in Australia were average to below average, due to the rainfall deficit.

Figure 3.1 Australia’s crop condition,  April- July 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone)

Table 3.1 Australia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2023

Table 3.2 Australia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2023