During the reporting period, the sowing of the main rice crop (Aman) started in May. Boro (winter) rice and wheat harvest ended in May and Aus rice harvest was mostly completed in July. Rainfall was greatly below average (-29%), both TEMP (+0.8℃) and RADPAR (+6%) were higher than the 15YA. The potential biomass decreased by 9%. The national NDVI development graph showed that crop conditions across the country were lower than the 5-year average from April to July and then returned to the average in late July. In April and May, low precipitation was the main reason for poor crop conditions. The  large drops in June might have been caused by cloud cover in the satellite images. The spatial NDVI pattern shows that 38.1% of the cultivated area was close to average. The rest of the area, mainly distributed in central Bangladesh, had big drops in late June and early July, but returned to average levels in late July. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.94, with most areas higher than 0.8 and CALF was 97%. Overall, the crop conditions in most parts of Bangladesh were close to average.

Regional analysis

Bangladesh can be divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Coastal region (23), the Gangetic plain (24), the Hills (25), and the Sylhet basin (26).

In the Coastal region, rainfall was 17% below average. TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.3°C and +3%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were close to the 5-year average except in late June and early July. CALF was at 91% and VCIx at 0.97. BIOMSS was below average (-7%). Conditions were near average.

The Gangetic plain also experienced a decrease in rainfall (-18%). Both TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.7°C and +6%). BIOMASS was slightly below average (-6%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows crop conditions were below the 5-year average except in early April and the end of July. CALF (97%) was average. VCIx was 0.92. They indicated slightly below average conditions in this region.

The Hills received the lowest precipitation amount of 706 mm (-63%), both TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.7°C and +8%). Estimated biomass production was reduced by 18%. The NDVI development graph showed that crop conditions across the region were close to the 5-year average except for the end of June. CALF (97%) was 1% higher than average. VCIx (0.91) indicated average crop prospects.

Rainfall was greatly below average (-29%) in the Sylhet Basin. TEMP was 1.0°C above average, and RADPAR was 5% above. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were below average for most of the reporting period, and they increased to above average levels at the end of May and July. The BIOMSS was below average (-9%). A high CALF at 99% and VCIx of 0.95 indicated average crop conditions.

Figure 3.9 Bangladesh’s crop condition, April - July 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Time series rainfall profile

(e) Time series temperature profile

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                      (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coastal region

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Gangetic plain

(j)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Hills

(k)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Sylhet basin

Table 3.9 Bangladesh’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2023

Table 3. 10 Bangladesh’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2023